FXUS64 KLIX 070830

AFDLIX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New Orleans LA

330 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...



.SHORT TERM...

(Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Upper trough from the Great Lakes to Texas this morning, with a

strong shortwave over southern Arkansas into east Texas moving

eastward. This has renewed coverage of showers and thunderstorms

across most of our coastal waters, as well as over land to the

east of a Bogalusa to Morgan City line. The convection is

relatively shallow, as 50 dbZ echoes are struggling to reach the

freezing level. The actual frontal boundary is over our outer

coastal waters, so the convection isn't surface based, as

temperatures across our area are generally in the 50s. That's a

far cry from the 75 to 80 degrees we were seeing across most of

the area 24 hours ago. 



The shortwave to our west will continue to track eastward today,

and any significant precipitation is likely to move east of the

area by midday or shortly thereafter. Skies should clear by sunset

or shortly thereafter, as much cooler and drier air moves into the

area, with mostly clear/sunny skies for the rest of the overnight

hours and on Tuesday. 



High temperatures are likely to be in the 60s this afternoon, but

if skies clear early enough, can't rule out a few places hitting

70. Overnight lows will be in the lower and middle 40s across much

of the area. Areas immediately downwind of Lake Pontchartrain

might remain in the lower 50s, and a few of the normally colder

locations could briefly touch the upper 30s if winds go calm just

before sunrise. 



Highs Tuesday should be in the lower 70s for most of the area,

with guidance in pretty good agreement. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tuesday night through Sunday)

Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



With the passage of the upper trough to the east tonight and

Tuesday morning, the upper flow becomes northwesterly for the

remainder of the week and much or all of next weekend. A northern

stream shortwave moving through the Great Lakes Thursday and

Friday will reinforce the cooler, drier air with a cold frontal 

passage. Moisture return in advance of the front will be very 

poor, with precipitable water values struggling to reach 1 inch. 

Won't entirely rule out isolated showers in advance of the front 

Thursday night, mainly for northern portions of the area, but with

forecast dew points struggling to even reach the mid 50s, a drier

solution appears to be the way to go right now. 



High temperatures should generally be in the 70s through the

period, but a few spots could hit 80 just ahead of the front on

Thursday, and then again on Sunday. Overnight lows are expected to

be a bit below normal most nights, in the 40s to lower 50s.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z and 12z TAFS) 

Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Generally MVFR ceilings early this morning, but there will be

brief periods where ceilings drop into the upper end of IFR.

Convection should move east of all terminals by 18z, if not

sooner. By the time the 12z TAF package is issued, there may not

be a need to mention TSRA at any of our forecast terminals. MVFR

ceilings are likely to linger until mid to late afternoon, when

VFR conditions return for the remainder of the forecast period for

the most part. There's a non-zero threat of radiation fog

developing right around sunrise Tuesday if winds go calm in areas

that had quite a bit of rainfall over the last 24 hours. 



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Will convert the Small Craft Advisory over the outer waters to

Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines at its expiration at 12z.

Will also carry those headlines across the remaining waters, for

today and tonight. Conditions will improve on Tuesday, with winds

and seasmuch more conducive for marine operations for most likely

the remainder of the workweek.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

MCB  63  41  70  43 /  20   0   0   0 

BTR  64  42  72  46 /  10   0   0   0 

ASD  68  44  73  46 /  30   0   0   0 

MSY  66  51  71  54 /  30   0   0   0 

GPT  66  45  72  48 /  40   0   0   0 

PQL  69  43  72  44 /  60   0   0   0 



&&



.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LA...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ570-572-

     575-577.



MS...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ572-575-

     577.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...RW

LONG TERM....RW

AVIATION...RW

MARINE...RW