FXUS64 KLCH 251118 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 618 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms today. - From now until Sunday evening, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are expected. - A much cooler airmass will arrive during the middle of the coming week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Quite the line of showers and stronger line segments is moving into east Texas at this hour. This will be the first of two rounds of convection expected to move through today. The line is progged to arrive to Deep Southeast Texas by roughly 4 to 6 AM; 7 to 9 AM to the Louisiana state line. Considering the line will be moving towards the HWY 165 corridor after sunrise, expect a destabilization of the leading airmass to reinvigorate storms as they move towards cenLA. Cold-pooled air behind the line should keep it moving rather progressively and a departure to east of the Atchafalaya should be roughly 1 to 4 PM. After a lull (develops west to east behind the line) another round of storms with the actual front should sweep through in similar fashion from 8 to 10 PM through sunrise Sunday. With each line, strong damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours are most likely. Within these strong wind segments, isolated instances of spinup tornadoes will be possible. Heavy rainfall is also expected, however, due to the progressive nature of both rounds, flooding is not expected. Not enough to warrant the necessity of a flood watch at this time. However, if dry ground conditions improve and warrant the need of issuance before the second round comes through, one may be issued. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Strong high pressure and very cold airmass do not arrive until the midweek. Under weakness aloft, there could be some very isolated showers into Tuesday. Wednesday, the high arrives and washes out any remaining showery or humid mess to bring about much cooler and drier conditions to end the work week. Daytime high temps in the low to mid 60s are expected Wednesday and Thursday, mid to upper 60s by Friday. Overnight lows in the 40s can be expected Thursday and Friday mornings. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is moving from east to west across the region. The line is expected to weaken as it moves farther east but near the line conditions will be IFR/LIFR with frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and chaotic gusty winds. After the line passes terminals persistent MVFR conditons are expected as lingering low clouds will impact CIGs. A period of calmer weather is expected this afternoon but overnight a second line of storms will move across the region. The timing for this second line looks to be from midnight to 4 AM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 78 62 79 58 / 90 90 70 10 LCH 80 68 81 62 / 90 90 70 10 LFT 80 69 81 62 / 80 90 90 10 BPT 80 67 82 62 / 100 90 50 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073- 074. TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...14