FXUS64 KLCH 242337 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 637 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms. - From Friday afternoon to Sunday evening, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are expected. - A much cooler airmass will arrive during the middle of the coming week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Current conditions are in the upper 70s to lower 80s under sunny skies. Moisture is returning to the area with a steady southeasterly flow streaming into the region. A cutoff low, presently over the Four Corners States, continues to deepen as it progresses eastward into the Southern Plains. Additionally, a surface low continues to develop over TX. A tightening pressure gradient will form between this low and a broad high pressure system over the eastern CONUS. This gradient will strengthen the southerly to southeasterly flow, further assisting the transport of rich Gulf moisture into the region. All of this will occur ahead of a cold front that will push over the area tomorrow, setting up a risk for severe weather and flash flooding. As of this afternoon, a Slight Risk SWO and ERO encompasses nearly the entire CWA. Model guidance depicts two lines of convection moving through the area: one prefrontal MCS and another more directly associated with the front. The prefrontal line is expected to push through from west to east starting in SETX early to mid Saturday morning, then exiting the lower Acadiana region that evening as the second round of convection begins to ramp up across SETX again. That second round is expected to taper and move out of the area Sunday morning. A lull in activity will be possible; however, we could still have some isolated showers before, between, and after the two main rounds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Even after the front moves through on Sunday, we could still see some isolated showers and storms early in the work week, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday, before another front moves through. This next frontal passage will be drier overall, with PoPs topping out in the 20 to 30 percent range. In the days following that frontal passage, we will see much cooler conditions with highs topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows bottoming out in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 This TAF period will be rather active as the first of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms moves through. Winds will persist out of the southeast and will remain elevated ahead of an approaching frontal system. A round of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms is set to arrive from the west around 10 to 12Z. It will slowly make its way east as a very ragged line with heavy rain, volatile gusty winds and frequent lightning expected. A lull will develop from west to east behind this main line with another round expected from the west after this TAF period. 11/Calhoun && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 83 61 78 63 / 0 20 90 90 LCH 83 68 81 69 / 0 40 90 90 LFT 83 67 80 69 / 0 10 70 90 BPT 83 70 81 68 / 10 50 90 90 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ073-074. TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ615. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...11