FXUS64 KLCH 241757 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... -There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms. - From Friday afternoon to Sunday evening, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are expected. - A much cooler airmass will arrive during the middle of the coming week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Current conditions are in the upper 70s to lower 80s under sunny skies. Moisture is returning to the area with a steady southeasterly flow streaming into the region. A cutoff low, presently over the Four Corners States, continues to deepen as it progresses eastward into the Southern Plains. Additionally, a surface low continues to develop over TX. A tightening pressure gradient will form between this low and a broad high pressure system over the eastern CONUS. This gradient will strengthen the southerly to southeasterly flow, further assisting the transport of rich Gulf moisture into the region. All of this will occur ahead of a cold front that will push over the area tomorrow, setting up a risk for severe weather and flash flooding. As of this afternoon, a Slight Risk SWO and ERO encompasses nearly the entire CWA. Model guidance depicts two lines of convection moving through the area: one prefrontal MCS and another more directly associated with the front. The prefrontal line is expected to push through from west to east starting in SETX early to mid Saturday morning, then exiting the lower Acadiana region that evening as the second round of convection begins to ramp up across SETX again. That second round is expected to taper and move out of the area Sunday morning. A lull in activity will be possible; however, we could still have some isolated showers before, between, and after the two main rounds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Even after the front moves through on Sunday, we could still see some isolated showers and storms early in the work week, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday, before another front moves through. This next frontal passage will be drier overall, with PoPs topping out in the 20 to 30 percent range. In the days following that frontal passage, we will see much cooler conditions with highs topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows bottoming out in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Mostly VFR conditions on tap with exception to some lowering CIGs across parts of SETX. CIGs will continue to lower about the region ahead of an approaching storm system. While we could see some isolated showers ahead of it, most of the impacts will be in the late morning to afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Wind and sea conditions will increase and become hazardous for an extended period of time ahead of and behind a developing and subsequently passing frontal system. Winds will strengthen starting this evening and will remain elevated thru at least Sunday afternoon. Expect periods of heavy downpours and potentially severe weather with the passage of a strong line feature on Saturday. Conditions will markedly improve after Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Winds from the southeast will increase today ahead of a developing frontal system in central Texas. This will aid in the lifting north of a remnant boundary and will bring a strong push of moisture into the region by late Friday / early Saturday. Expect periods of strong to severe thunderstorms, especially Saturday, with heavy downpours likely. Conditions will improve markedly after Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 61 78 63 79 / 20 90 90 60 LCH 68 81 69 82 / 40 90 90 70 LFT 67 80 69 80 / 10 70 90 80 BPT 70 81 68 82 / 50 90 90 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ073-074. TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ615. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...87