FXUS64 KLCH 241114 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 614 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A frontal system is forecast to move through this weekend with widespread rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms expected. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall as well as a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms for southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana on Saturday. - From Friday afternoon to Sunday evening, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are expected. - A much cooler airmass will finally arrive during the middle of the coming week. Lows in the low 40s expected Thursday and Friday mornings. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Today will see the final day of the standing mostly clear and nice fall weather. Highs in the low 80s with a nice breeze. A frontal system developing in central Texas will set off quite the gradient restyling in strengthening southeast winds and the return of deep moisture into Saturday. This is all done ahead of an approaching frontal system. The primary frontal boundary will move through on Saturday. A combination of the deep moisture and localized shear has warranted a one-two-combination of Slight Risks, one for Excessive Rainfall (level 2 of 4) and the other for Severe Weather (level 2 of 5.) Guidance currently brings a prefrontal boundary through from west to east, sunrise to lunch time. Then there could be a lull thru the early afternoon before the primary front moves through in the late afternoon and evening. For those with plans on Saturday, and there are a LOT of you, maybe don't. Of course I'm kidding. Try to plan accordingly and always always practice your severe weather / flood safety! When you hear thunder, go indoors. If a warning has been issued for your area, heed the instructions and take cover. Lastly, do not drive into flooded roadways - even if your vehicle is lifted! Don't do it! Conditions will not immediately improve on Sunday as there won't be a strong cold airmass waiting to move into the region. Highs will top out in the lower 80s. The actual cold air moves in in the longterm... 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Strong high pressure comes into the central US into the midweek, ushering in that SWEET sweet taste of fall! Any remaining humidity, drizzles or clouds will be washed out into Wednesday as the cold dry airmass moves in. Temps drop incredibly with highs in the upper 60s Wednesday. Lows in the low 40s to end the work week. Y'all get ready. Fall is really on the way! 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds will begin to increase as low pressure approaches from the west. Winds will be from the south-southeast around 10 to 15 knots. Ceilings will start to fall near the end of the TAF period but will remain above MVFR levels. && .MARINE... Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Wind and sea conditions will increase and become hazardous for an extended period of time ahead of and behind a developing and subsequently passing frontal system. Winds will strengthen starting this evening and will remain elevated thru at least Sunday afternoon. Expect periods of heavy downpours and potentially severe weather with the passage of a strong line feature on Saturday. Conditions will markedly improve after Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Winds from the southeast will increase today ahead of a developing frontal system in central Texas. This will aid in the lifting north of a remnant boundary and will bring a strong push of moisture into the region by late Friday / early Saturday. Expect periods of strong to severe thunderstorms, especially Saturday, with heavy downpours likely. Conditions will improve markedly after Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 84 62 79 63 / 0 20 80 90 LCH 83 68 80 69 / 0 40 90 90 LFT 84 67 82 69 / 0 20 70 80 BPT 83 71 80 69 / 10 50 90 90 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...14