FXUS64 KLCH 201802

AFDLCH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA

102 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for flash flooding for areas north of

  I-10 and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for the rest of the area

  through this afternoon



- Temperatures will start to increase next week with highs in the

  low to mid 90s.



- Rain chances will start to decrease on Sunday and will range

  from 0 to 20 percent for most of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Friday)

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



A frontal boundary has stalled north of the local region, however

deep moisture continues to stream across the area along and south

of the old boundary. Troughing is over a large portion of the

eastern CONUS with short waves passing across the southern states

around the bottom of the larger trof. These disturbances are

interacting with the weakening surface boundary and high PWATs to

form scattered to numerous storms capable of producing very heavy

rain across SE TX and S LA.



Convection is expected to gradually decrease this evening as

heating is lost, however a few storms may linger through the 

night as the boundary remains near. 



Sunday into Monday a ridge will begin to build in aloft. Isolated

afternoon storms will be possible Sunday, but rain chances will be

near 0 for Monday. No rain is anticipated Tuesday. With the lack

of convection and cloud cover, apparent temps will creep up to 

near heat adv criteria of 108F, but mainly across interior 

locations.



The ridge aloft may hold through the remainder of the week keeping

the area hot, humid, and mostly rain free, however a weak back

door front may move close enough to provide a low end chance of

rain for Cen LA by Thursday or Friday.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Scattered showers and storms will produce lower vis and ceiling at

any impacted terminal through early evening. Convection is

expected to gradually decrease after sunset. With outflow

boundaries around the region, winds may also be VRB, but could be

gusty in storms.





&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



The pressure gradient will gradually tighten into Sunday night

which is increase winds. Sunday night into Monday there could be a

brief period where winds reach SCA criteria over a portion of the

gulf waters. Winds will decrease again by Tuesday with a light to

moderate onshore flow anticipated through the remainder of the

week.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



No fire weather concerns through the period.



&&



.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LA...None.

TX...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05

AVIATION...05