FXUS64 KLCH 201708 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for flash flooding for areas north of I-10 and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for the rest of the area on Saturday - Temperatures will start to increase next week with highs in the mid 90s. - Rain chances will start to decrease on Sunday and will be near zero for most of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Additional heavy rain is expected on Saturday as a stationary boundary extends across the southern US. This front is providing the surface convergence for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Aloft, a slow-moving trough will provide additional lift across the region as it progresses over the weekend. The environment for storms remains robust, with CAPE values around 2500 J/kg and PWATs near 2 inches (well above the 90th percentile). WPC has placed areas north of I-10 under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) and south under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4). The CAMs show a line of thunderstorms moving across the state early Saturday as the front begins to meander towards the coast. Similar to today, the main threats will be heavy rain and the possibility of wet microburst, with forecast soundings showing DCAPE values around 900. A limiting factor for tomorrow will be low shear values; with 0-6 km shear below 25 knots, widespread organized convection is unlikely. Instead, any line that forms will mainly be outflow- driven. By Sunday, the front will stall along the coast and wash out. Rain chances will still be in the forecast but much lower than the previous several days, sitting around 30%. As we move into next week, conditions will be dry as weak ridging starts to build aloft. At the surface, high pressure in the eastern Gulf will keep our winds from the south and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid-90s. This combination will put the heat index well into the triple digits, and heat advisories may be needed.&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Overnight conditions will be a mix of VFR and MVFR with visibility restrictions being the main concern. CAMs are showing another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms starting around 14Z for AEX and moving south into the early afternoon. Away from convection, winds will be from the south around 10 to 15 knots. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Scattered showers and storms will produce lower vis and ceiling at any impacted terminal through early evening. Convection is expected to gradually decrease after sunset. With outflow boundaries around the region, winds may also be VRB, but could be gusty in storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Overnight conditions will be a mix of VFR and MVFR with visibility restrictions being the main concern. CAMs are showing another round of heavy showers and thunderstorms starting around 14Z for AEX and moving south into the early afternoon. Away from convection, winds will be from the south around 10 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Light onshore flow will continue for Saturday. By Sunday winds will start to increase as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds will be gusting above 20 knots and a Small Craft Advisory is likely for Sunday through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Fire weather concerns remain low due to abundant rainfall and high humidity. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...05