FXUS64 KLCH 060520

AFDLCH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA

1220 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather today due to a 

  cold front. 

 

- Heavy rain and flash flooding is possible today and Thursday as

  a front moves across the region.



- Rain chances remain in place during the weekend with upper 

  disturbances traversing the region.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Tonight through next Tuesday)

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



A cold front is advancing south and east across north Texas and

Arkansas. Showers and storms are ongoing near the boundary with a

tornado watch in effect earlier across portions of AR. A short

wave is moving east across much of the central CONUS helping to

advance the front.



Today the front will continue south bound, entering the east TX

Lakes and Cen LA around mid day to early afternoon. Diurnal

heating and the added convergence from the front is anticipated 

to spark scattered to numerous storms. Mid lvl lapse rates will be

sufficient to produce large hail with strong gusty winds also 

possible. A few isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out. 

Convection is forecast to initiate north of the CWA then 

propagate southeast. The cap over the southern sections of the 

CWA is expected to limit to south extent of severe weather, 

however a few storms may make it to the coast late today or early 

Thu. PWAT is also forecast to run at or above 2" ahead of the 

boundary, which is around or higher than the max for the date. 

Very heavy rainfall may occur in storms.



The front will push offshore Thursday and stall before slowly

lifting back north Friday. WAA will return moisture back north

while multiple upper disturbances traverse the area through Sunday.

Rain chances will remain elevated into the weekend before another

front pushes offshore and sharper short wave sweeps through.



A somewhat cooler and drier air mass is expected to move through

early next week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



MVFR to IFR ceilings will prevail through much of tonight and 

tomorrow. Scattered showers and storms may also briefly reduce vis

and ceiling tomorrow afternoon, but mainly around KAEX. Winds 

will be gusty again Wednesday. Winds will become northerly just 

after the TAF period as a cold front moves through.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



A moderate onshore flow is expected today. A cold front will stall

over the coastal waters Thursday and gradually lift back north

into the weekend. Another cold front will push back offshore late

Sunday with a moderate north flow anticipated Monday.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



A south flow will keep moisture elevated today, however a cold

front will move into the area and stall tonight into Thursday.

This boundary will be a focus for rain into the weekend as

multiple disturbances traverse the region.



&&



.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LA...None.

TX...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05

AVIATION...05