FXUS64 KLCH 051728

AFDLCH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA

1228 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on Wednesday due

  to a cold front. The threat is conditional and forecast

  questions remain. 

 

- Heavy rain and flash flooding is possible on Wednesday and

  Thursday as a front moves across the region.



- Low end rain chances anticipated during the weekend with upper 

  disturbances traversing the region.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Monday)

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



High pressure is located in the eastern Gulf while low pressure 

is located in central Oklahoma. The increased pressure gradient 

force between these two systems is causing elevated south winds 

around 20 knots. The southern flow has led to robust warm/moist 

air advection with dew points in the upper 60s and high 

temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. With the 

surge in moisture, PWATs are expected to be in the 99th percentile

or an all-time high with the ensemble mean values around 1.9 

inches. To put that in perspective, the daily average for this 

time of year is around 1.09 inches while the 90th percentile is at

1.65 inches. WPC has placed us under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 

4) for flash flooding on Wednesday.



Other criteria for strong to severe storms are also favorable 

with CAPE values averaging around 2000 to 2500 J/kg with 0-6 km 

shear over 50 knots. The main hang-up for tomorrow's storms will 

be convective initiation as all guidance keeps a cap firmly in 

place through Wednesday. This cap is mainly due to the marine 

layer. CAMs so far show the cap holding with only a few isolated 

showers expected across the region. Still, this environment is 

conditionally severe with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) from the 

SPC in place.



The boundary will move offshore late on Thursday and then stall in

the northern Gulf. Temperatures will be lower behind the front

along with some north winds, but conditions will slowly warm up

for the rest of the week with dry weather. Early next week,

another upper-level disturbance will bring more rain and showers

to the region.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Persistent MVFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the

TAF forecast as a system approaches the region from the north.

Winds will remain from the south between 10 to 15 knots with the

occasional gust up to 20 knots. Starting Wednesday afternoon,

shower and thunderstorm activity will increase as a front moves

across the region.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Onshore flow continues with speeds between 10 to 15 knots with

gusts up to 20 knots. An exercise caution statement will go in

effect this afternoon and last until Thursday evening. A front

will stall offshore on Friday leading to a northern wind shift and

the occasional showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Strong southern winds will keep RH values high with minRH values

only dropping around 70% tonight. A front will move across the

region on Wednesday night/Thursday causing a northern wind shift

and a slight drop in dew points. Rainfall with this system is

expected to be low, but there is a conditional risk for heavy rain

and strong thunderstorms. No elevated fire weather is expected

this week.



&&



.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LA...None.

TX...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14

AVIATION...14