FXUS64 KLCH 051110 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 610 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity expected today and Wednesday ahead of another cold front that will move through the area early Thursday morning. - Thunderstorms will precede the cold front beginning Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday. Some of these storms will have the potential to be severe ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat with the stronger storms. - Low end rain chances anticipated during the weekend with upper disturbances traversing the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 High pressure extends from the Atlantic into the gulf while low pressure is over the central plains. Between these systems an onshore flow is over the local area which is increasing moisture. Dewpoints are currently in the 50s and 60s, however these values will climb into the 70s today. A light south flow will remain in place tonight, however winds may gust over 20 kts through the afternoon. There is an outside chance of a sprinkle from late morning through the afternoon, but accumulation of rain will be hard to come by as a cap will remain in place. An upper disturbance which is centered between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay will continue east through Wednesday swinging a short wave across the central sections of the country. As this occurs it will force a cold front south to the gulf coast. Showers and storms will push into SE TX and LA by Wednesday, but mainly during the afternoon or evening hours. Capping may prohibit most convection along the coast, however numerous storms may be possible from the east TX lakes into Cen LA. Modest cape and fairly steep lapse rates will be in place. Strong gusty winds and large hail may be the main threats, however an isolated tornado will also be possible into the night as the front moves in. The cold front will gradually move to the coast during Thursday. The frontal boundary will stall along the coast Friday into early Saturday. An upper disturbance is expected to move across the region interacting with the boundary. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 VFR CIGs early this morning will gradually fill in and become MVFR through the next few hours. Light south winds will also begin to pick up and become gusty through the same time frame. MVFR ceilings near 3000FT and gusty south winds will prevail throughout much of today into this evening. Winds will relax a bit around 00Z into the overnight hours, while ceilings remain MVFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Onshore southerly winds 10-15 kt and mostly dry conditions are anticipated into early Wednesday, though a passing disturbance may bring a few light rain showers during the day Tuesday, but mostly across inland locations. A more substantial cold front will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms and a transition to offshore flow. Northeast winds 15-20 kt will be expected Thursday night into Friday. Winds will start to turn back onshore heading into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Southerly flow will bring deep Gulf moisture into the area through late Wednesday. A passing disturbance may bring a sprinkle of rain Tuesday, but precipitation chances will remain low until Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front crosses the area. This will bring a threat of widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. Flow turns northeasterly behind the front along with a small drop in humidity. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will remain possible heading into the weekend as an upper level disturbance tracks through the region. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05 AVIATION...17