FXUS64 KLCH 041116 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 616 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Another very pleasant day expected today. - Warmer temperatures and increasing humidity expected Tuesday ahead of another cold front that will move through the area early Thursday morning. - Thunderstorms will precede the cold front beginning Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday. Some of these storms will have the potential to be severe ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 High pressure remains overhead this morning yielding mostly clear skies and calm winds across the region. The center of the high will work east of the region over the next eight hours or so allowing southerly winds to develop after sunrise. With these southerly winds will come increasing humidity through the day as dewpoints will climb from the lower 50s this morning to the lower 60s by this evening. Thereturn flow will be slow enough to keep afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s today for one more day of picture perfect weather. The atmospheric column will become increasingly saturated Tuesday as a weak upper level disturbance with better moisture transits the region resulting in a significant increase in cloud cover and a much more muggy feeling on the ground. Another upper level trof digging south across the central conus is forecast to push another noticeable cold front through the region Thursday morning. Guidance has consistently pushed back the fropa by about 6-12 hours compared to this time yesterday while further increasing the moisture pooling along the gulf coast ahead of it. This will support heavy rain producing thunderstorms and WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across central Louisiana. Strong instability and wind shear from southwesterly flow aloft will have the potential to support some severe storms from late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night although details regarding the exact timing and probabilities of severe storms will continue to be ironed out over the next couple of days. A cooler, drier airmass will push into the region behind the front, but this one will not be nearly as "clean" as another upper level low moving across northern Mexico and southern Texas will interact with the moisture aloft to maintain overcast skies and produce more showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this feature so don't cancel late week or weekend plans just yet. Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 A few high clouds will stream across the region today/tonight, with all sites maintaining VFR. Calm winds this morning will increase over the next couple of hours, becoming gusty through the midday into the afternoon before decreasing again with sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Onshore winds will become reestablished today between 10-15 knots where they'll remain until Thursday morning. A cold front is expected to move through the coastal waters Thursday morning accompanied by showers and thunderstorms that are likely to continue following the frontal passage through at least Friday morning. Breezy offshore flow between 15-20 knots will develop behind the front Thursday into Friday before turning onshore again next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Dewpoints will gradually increase today and tomorrow on light southerly winds. Precipitation chances return Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front that will push through the region early Thursday morning. A few of these storms will have the potential to become severe. Winds will turn northerly behind the frontal passage Thursday morning. Precipitation chances will remain elevated Thursday and Friday as upper level moisture associated with the front interacts with a second upper level low moving across south Texas. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...17