FXUS64 KLCH 020602 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1202 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - After a chilly weekend the airmass overhead moderates quickly through early portions of this week as onshore flow becomes reestablished and moisture increases. - Rain chances increase Tuesday thru Wednesday night with another cold front passing by Thursday AM. No hard freeze or winter weather conditions are anticipated. - Thursday will be cooler, around normal temps, but Friday and into the weekend, temps in the 60s will return. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Early morning temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 30s beneath clear skies and near calm winds as surface high pressure, currently located just offshore of Cameron, continues to drift southward into the Gulf. While most guidance indicates minimum temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the CWA, efficient radiational cooling may allow temperatures to fall below freezing across much of the area. Brief hard freeze conditions cannot be ruled out across areas north of Highway 190 early Monday morning. The surface high will meander over the northern Gulf waters before shifting eastward toward Florida by Tuesday. As the high departs, low level flow will veer southerly with gradually increasing wind speeds. The return of southerly flow will support modest moisture advection and a continued warming trend. Temperatures will gradually moderate but are expected to remain near to slightly below climatological normals through midweek. A cold front is forecast to approach and move through the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Warm air advection and increasing moisture ahead of the front will support scattered to numerous showers. Limited instability is expected, favoring primarily rain with only isolated thunderstorms possible. Current rainfall forecasts range from approximately 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Shower activity will diminish Wednesday as the front moves offshore and surface high pressure builds into the region, allowing cooler and drier air to return. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Cooler and drier conditions will persist into Thursday as surface high pressure remains over the region. By Friday, the high will shift into the Gulf, allowing southerly flow to become reestablished across the area. This pattern will support a gradual warming trend, with temperatures moderating Friday and increasing to near, then above, climatological normals through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Light and variable winds will continue through the overnight hours. Patchy ground fog may develop at KBPT, with guidance suggesting potential MVFR visibilities. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. On Monday, surface high pressure will continue to sink into the Gulf, with southerly to southwesterly winds gradually increasing. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 High pressure will bring generally light winds to area waters into Monday morning. The only marine concern will be low water conditions in coastal areas tonight into early tomorrow due to low astronomical tides. Onshore flow should pick up a bit Monday evening as a shortwave trough approaches the area. This disturbance will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to area waters Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with breezy northerly winds to follow as the disturbance exits. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Starting Monday, high pressure moves to the eastwith a fetch of warm, moist air expected to move back into the region. Rain chances return Tuesday and hang around into Wednesday as a frontal boundary slowly moves into the southeast US. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 64 46 66 40 / 0 0 80 60 LCH 63 51 67 48 / 0 0 50 80 LFT 63 47 69 46 / 0 0 30 90 BPT 65 52 68 47 / 0 0 60 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon CST today for GMZ430-432. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...87