FXUS64 KLCH 020019 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 619 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - After a chilly weekend the airmass overhead moderates quickly through early portions of this week as onshore flow becomes reestablished and moisture increases. - Rain chances increase Tuesday thru Wednesday night with another cold front passing by Thursday AM. No hard freeze or winter weather conditions are anticipated. - Thursday will be cooler, around normal temps, but Friday and into the weekend, temps in the 60s will return. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Cold conditions were observed area-wide this morning as everyone fell into either the upper teens or low 20s for most hours of the night. Now that high pressure has moved into the region and cold air advection is cut off, expect the start of airmass moderation today with highs to top out in the 40s to lower 50s. With light winds today, should make for a fairly beautiful day! Monday will see the largest temperature jump as high moves to the east, setting up return flow and really allowing temps to jump into the mid 60s. Truly, it'll feel like a beautiful spring day as moisture hasn't moved in yet. That's the day to really get out and about! That is said because the rest of the short term forecast will be rather gross. Return flow cranks into Tuesday morning with much more humid air arriving ahead of a shortwave trof and associated sfc cool frontal boundary. Rain chances will start tamping upwards into Tuesday from northwest to southeast as broad scale lift associated with the trof spreads across the forecast area. Large rainfall totals are not anticipated in the shortterm. There is no severe risk on Tuesday either as instability and shear are nearly nonexistent. Just showery rainfall for those areas that get overspread by Tuesday night. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Boundary lingers into the forecast area on Wednesday with showers continuing into Wednesday morning. The main upper trof moves overhead into the afternoon hours, bringing with it a cold pacific airmass. This will exacerbate rainfall during daytime hours as the upper trof phases with low level trof. However, flooding and severe are still not a risk. Widespread, showery rainfall with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be the primary weather type and expectation. Upper trof axis passes overhead by late Wednesday, ushering the cooler airmass southward and lingering rainfall out. Wednesday will be rainmass-cooled with Thursday cooled by the Pacific front. By Friday and beyond, ridging moving overhead will allow the airmass to moderate back into the 60s through the next weekend. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Light and variable winds to continue for the rest of the evening into overnight hours. The surface high will sink further into the gulf, with southerly to southwesterly winds increasing. We could see some ground fog at a few of the southern terminals, with guidance calling for MVFR to IFR fog. && .MARINE... Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 High pressure will bring generally light winds to area waters for today into Monday morning. The only marine concern will be low water conditions in coastal areas tonight into early tomorrow due to low astronomical tides. Onshore flow should pick up a bit Monday evening as a shortwave trough approaches the area. This disturbance will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to area waters Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with breezy northerly winds to follow as the disturbance exits. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Dry, cold conditions to continue again today under high pressure influence. Starting Monday, high pressure moves to the east with a fetch of warm, moist air expected to move back into the region. Rain chances return Tuesday and hang around into Wednesday as a frontal boundary slowly moves into the southeast US. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 29 65 45 67 / 0 0 0 70 LCH 36 64 51 68 / 0 0 0 40 LFT 31 64 48 69 / 0 0 0 20 BPT 35 66 53 70 / 0 0 0 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Monday for GMZ430-432. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...87