FXUS64 KJAN 251210 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 710 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning for parts of the area. - There is a flash flooding threat for areas west of I-55 and the MS River and south of I-20 with rainfall totals of 2-2.5 inches across those areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Today & Sunday: A large and deep low pressure system centered over western Oklahoma is set to move towards the region with a substantial frontal boundary associated with it. This frontal boundary will spark widespread convection out ahead of this low, through Louisiana in the afternoon hours before petering out by the time it gets to the Mississippi around early afternoon. Another bout of strong organization caused by the aforementioned low will reinvorgate the front and provide a much stronger push eastward overnight Saturday into Sunday morning with much more stout PWATs and speed which will allow the front to finally traverse the MS River. Rain totals associated with this system look to be 2-2.5 inches which will allow for flash flooding potential especially west of I-55 and south of I- 20. Thermal and moisture gradient will be high enough along with general mesoscale organization will provide enough support for a few severe thunderstorms within the areas of interest. While the low pulls off to the north/east we will see gusty winds behind up to 20kts until sunset Sunday. Monday Onwards: A dry cold front will pushes any remnants of the previous frontal boundary out of the region by Tuesday. Once the frontal boundary pushes through, ridging pattern will build in behind the frontal boundary. Northwest flow will usher in below-average temperatures and drier air. With temperatures forecast to be 5-10 degrees below climatological average (highs:low 60s/lows:low 40s), some parts of the region could see the first frost of the season. Sensitive vegetation may need to be cover to protect from frost damage. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 707 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Apart from some patchy BR at KHBG to start the TAF period, VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites until at least 18Z today. Increasing chances for SHRA and TSRA at sites west of Interstate 55 will bring possibility of variable ceilings. Shower and storm chances spread east to reaming sites by 06Z Sunday, with initially variable ceilings settling to MVFR or IFR at sites along and west of Interstate 20 by around 03Z-06Z. Added timing of most confident thunder impacts into the TAFs. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 79 60 71 60 / 60 90 90 60 Meridian 82 57 69 57 / 10 50 90 70 Vicksburg 78 63 74 60 / 80 90 90 30 Hattiesburg 83 63 75 62 / 30 60 90 60 Natchez 79 63 78 59 / 90 100 90 20 Greenville 76 60 69 59 / 70 100 90 40 Greenwood 80 56 69 57 / 40 90 90 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for MSZ018-019-025-027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053-054-059>061. LA...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for ARZ074-075. && $$ OAJ/NF