FXUS64 KJAN 250635 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 135 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning for parts of the area. - There is a flash flooding threat for areas west of I-55 and the MS River and south of I-20 with rainfall totals of 2-2.5 inches across those areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Today & Sunday: A large and deep low pressure system centered over western Oklahoma is set to move towards the region with a substantial frontal boundary associated with it. This frontal boundary will spark widespread convection out ahead of this low, through Louisiana in the afternoon hours before petering out by the time it gets to the Mississippi around early afternoon. Another bout of strong organization caused by the aforementioned low will reinvorgate the front and provide a much stronger push eastward overnight Saturday into Sunday morning with much more stout PWATs and speed which will allow the front to finally traverse the MS River. Rain totals associated with this system look to be 2-2.5 inches which will allow for flash flooding potential especially west of I-55 and south of I- 20. Thermal and moisture gradient will be high enough along with general mesoscale organization will provide enough support for a few severe thunderstorms within the areas of interest. While the low pulls off to the north/east we will see gusty winds behind up to 20kts until sunset Sunday. Monday Onwards: A dry cold front will pushes any remnants of the previous frontal boundary out of the region by Tuesday. Once the frontal boundary pushes through, ridging pattern will build in behind the frontal boundary. Northwest flow will usher in below-average temperatures and drier air. With temperatures forecast to be 5-10 degrees below climatological average (highs:low 60s/lows:low 40s), some parts of the region could see the first frost of the season. Sensitive vegetation may need to be cover to protect from frost damage. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Initial VFR conditions prevailing at the TAF sites, with chances for SHRA and a few TSRA increasing from west to east after 18Z today. Better chances for RA and TSRA after 00Z Sunday especially at sites along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Rain will also be accompanied by chances for MVFR ceilings overspreading TAF sites from west to east. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 80 59 71 60 / 50 80 90 60 Meridian 81 57 69 57 / 10 40 90 70 Vicksburg 78 62 74 60 / 70 90 90 30 Hattiesburg 83 63 75 62 / 20 50 90 60 Natchez 79 64 78 59 / 70 90 90 20 Greenville 77 59 69 59 / 60 90 90 40 Greenwood 80 56 69 57 / 30 80 90 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ OAJ/NF