FXUS64 KJAN 241856 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 156 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning for parts of the area. - Flash flooding threat for areas west of MS River, east of I-55, and south of I-20.. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Tonight through next Friday Saturday-Sunday: A low pressure system pushing eastward from the Central Plains region with an attendant cold front is expected to migrate towards the ArkLaMiss region, resulting in rainfall beginning Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Ahead of the rain, gusty winds and lower humidity will result in a low risk for fire danger in eastern MS. As the front approaches, a warm front is expected to lift northwards, moisture will return to the area. An initial round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will push across the area, weakening as it moves further eastward outrunning greater forcing and instability. As a low-lvl jet pushes over the region Saturday evening, it will increase shear, instability, and moisture over areas south of I-20 and result in a second wave of showers and thunderstorms. Severe and flooding threat continues to be the primary concern with this system as PWAT values ranges between 1.5 and 2.0 inches and marginal instability will be in place. Recent model runs are showing convergence zone/moisture axis settling along the Gulf coastline instead of closer to southwestern parts of the area. Depending on where the convergence zone and greatest moisture axis settles, a couple of scenarios could play out for the area. Scenario 1: Convergence zone/moisture axis sets up near the lower Delta, resulting in higher rainfall amounts from northeast LA into northwest MS. Severe weather potential will exist further north closer to I-20. Scenario 2: Due to strong jet level divergence over the Gulf Coast, low level convergence zone/moisture axis doesn't move as far northward, confining the instability and higher rainfall amounts to South MS (HWY 84/98 corridor) and central LA. Regardless of scenarios, timing for the heaviest rainfall and severe weather remains between Saturday evening/overnight into Sunday morning. Adjusted to flooding graphic to include additional areas west of I-55 to account for the potential heavy rain axis over the Lower Delta. No adjustments were made to the severe HWO graphic. As the low pulls away and deepens, non-thunderstorm gusty winds may be possible Sunday morning across north MS in the wake of the low passing over the area. Lingering showers are expected as the frontal slowly moves away. Monday-Friday: A dry cold front pushes the remnants of the previous frontal boundary out of the region by Tuesday. Once the frontal boundary pushes through, ridging pattern will build in behind the frontal boundary. Northwest flow will usher in below-average temperatures and drier air. With temperatures forecast to be 5-10 degrees below climatological average (highs:low 60s/lows:low 40s), some parts of the region could see the first frost of the season. Sensitive vegetation may need to be cover to protect from frost damage. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will increase through Saturday as the next storm system moves into the area. Showers will begin spreading into the region during the day Saturday, mainly beginning after the current TAF period. Beyond this time, categorical reductions will become more likely in low ceilings and periods of +RA. TS will also be possible into Sat night. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 57 80 59 74 / 0 50 80 90 Meridian 53 81 56 70 / 0 20 50 80 Vicksburg 58 77 62 76 / 0 70 90 80 Hattiesburg 55 83 63 77 / 0 30 50 80 Natchez 60 80 64 79 / 0 70 90 80 Greenville 56 76 59 70 / 0 70 90 90 Greenwood 57 80 56 71 / 0 40 80 90 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SW/DL