FXUS64 KJAN 191805 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 105 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Tonight and Wednesday: The local radars were quieter early this afternoon than they were at the same time Monday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected across the central and southern portions of the CWA this afternoon into early evening. Although the storms are not expected to be as potent as the Monday storms, a strong storm or two with gusty winds will be possible. Heat and high humidity are the main threats this afternoon leading to an Extreme Heat Warning in the west and a Heat Advisory in the east until 8PM CDT. Otherwise, the recent oppressive heat wave is expected to have peaked today and less oppressive conditions are expected Wednesday. As the large 598dam high becomes centered over the Four Corners region lower heights and shortwave troughing will develop over our region. This shortwave troughing from the north will also be supporting a weak cold front. The cold front will remain to our northwest Wednesday but help increase the chance for rain and associated cloud cover over our CWA. This should help hold temperatures down and result in lower heat indices. The peak heat index values should rise above 105F for several hours before convection kicks in and leads to rain-cooled temperatures. A Heat Advisory has been issued for most of our CWA Wednesday. /22/ Thursday Onwards... Little will change over the next week, as high pressure remains anchored over the region. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers/thunderstorms are expected every day. All indications at this time point to non-severe characteristics for this convection but there is still a chance for damaging winds should a cell or two overachieve. A weak trough and an associated front will rotate around the upper level ridge Thursday/Friday which will help moderate our temperatures back down into the 90s, allowing for a relief from our 105+ heat indices across the area. Upper level troughing will continue over the area into the weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and a slight increase in afternoon storm coverage; with the greatest coverage along and south of I-20. Over the weekend another front will push into the area from the north. This will allow for marginal drying and an attendant drop in precipitation both in coverage and intensity. That being said we should see a continued drop in temps next week with highs in the high 80s and lows in the 60s./OAJ/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Isolated SHRA/TSRA will develop across the area this aftn and come in vcty of the cntrl and srn TAF sites. Away from the TSRA VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 98 73 94 / 10 50 30 50 Meridian 74 96 73 92 / 0 40 30 50 Vicksburg 75 96 73 94 / 10 50 40 40 Hattiesburg 74 99 75 95 / 10 30 20 60 Natchez 73 96 73 92 / 10 40 30 60 Greenville 75 97 73 94 / 20 50 30 20 Greenwood 75 98 73 94 / 20 60 30 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019- 025>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>066-072>074. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ026>033-036>039- 043>046-049>052-055>058-062>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075. && $$ 22/OAJ/22