FXUS64 KHUN 251015

AFDHUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

515 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 912 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



 - Medium to high rain chances return Sunday into Monday.



 - A low chance for thunderstorms on Sunday night into Monday

   morning.



 - Low to medium chances for rain linger through the work week

   with colder temperatures arriving Wednesday.



&&



.NEAR TERM...

(Today)

Issued at 108 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



A dry and mild day is ahead as high pressure over the Great Lakes

into the mid Atlantic holds. This will keep an east-southeats flow

of dry and stable air into the region through today, keeping dew

points in the 40s. Afternoon highs will reach the lower 70s east

(upper 60s atop the Cumberland Plateau) to the middle 70s along

and west of I-65. High cloud patches continue to develop and

spread east, which will limit sunshine at times, especially in

northwest AL. The upper level low over northwest TX and eastern NM

will pivot east into OK and north TX today, increasing upper level

diffluence, UVVs and rainfall further east into AR and MS.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Monday night)

Issued at 912 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



As the aforementioned system gets closer, rain chances will

increase tonight into Sunday. With cooler sfc temps leading to 

poor lapse rates, we will continue only a low chance for 

thunderstorms through the short term period with the best chances 

Sunday night into Monday. Heavy rain will be possible at times, 

with the highest rainfall (60-80% PoPs) Sunday night into Monday 

morning. Rainfall amounts could approach 1-1.25", but the threat 

for widespread flash flooding is low due to the recent dry 

pattern. We will maintain medium chances (30-50%) for rain through

the remainder of the short term period with temps on the cooler 

side of normal. Highs will top out near the lower 60s each 

afternoon with lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tuesday through Friday) 

Issued at 912 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



On Tuesday, the Tennessee Valley will be underneath a long wave upper

trough and inbetween two low pressure systems. The first to our 

southeast, which is forecast to bring rain over the weekend and the 

second system dropping down from the northwest across the Plains. 

This will keep temperatures across the area below climatological 

norms with afternoon highs Tuesday in the low to mid 60s and 

overnight lows in the mid 40s. As this low pressure system 

intensifies, it will develop a cold front across the MS River Valley 

and push it eastward into our local forecast area Tuesday into 

Wednesday. While only medium chances (40-50%) of showers are 

forecast, this will likely increase as timing differences in the 

ensemble guidance improves. However, the most likely timing appears 

late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning for the frontal 

passage. 



By the second half of next week, the aformentioned sfc low becomes

occluded and drops slowly southward across the MS River Valley and 

then meander eastward along the Gulf coast. This will keep low 

chances (15-30%) of showers through the end of the work week. But 

more noticeable will be the continuation of the below normal 

temperatures. CAA due to northerly to northwesterly flow keeps 

afternoon highs Thursday and Friday in the mid to upper 50s and 

overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Something to keep an 

eye on is the potential for some frost, especially in southern middle

TN, towards the end of the work week if temperatures trend colder.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 515 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.



&&



.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...17

SHORT TERM....25

LONG TERM....GH

AVIATION...17