FXUS64 KHUN 201533

AFDHUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

1033 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1033 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



 - A low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday 

   afternoon into the early evening. No severe weather is 

   forecast.



 - The warming trend will continue this weekend, with the 

   potential for record breaking maximum temperatures on Sunday.



&&



.NEAR TERM...

(Rest of Today and Tonight)

Issued at 1033 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Surface high pressure will persist over the Deep South today and 

tonight, with south to southwest flow helping dew points to 

increase into the 50s. No rain is forecast today, but mostly clear

skies and warm air advection will keep the warming temperature 

trend going. Highs are therefore forecast to reach the mid 70s to 

around 80 degrees this afternoon. It may also be a bit breezy, 

with gusts between 15-20 mph at times today. Lows tonight are 

expected to be warmer as well, only dropping into the 50s 

(compared to the 30s/40s we saw the past couple of nights). 

Otherwise, there is no impactful weather of note. For those that 

prefer the warmer weather, enjoy!



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Saturday through Sunday) 

Issued at 1033 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Although the aforementioned surface high will persist over the 

Deep South, an upper level shortwave looks to move along the upper

level northwest flow pattern over the Southeast Saturday 

afternoon and evening. In addition, instability values look to 

increase to between 500-750 J/kg Saturday afternoon. However, bulk

shear values shown by model guidance range between 25-30 knots. 

Therefore, there is a low chance (10-20%) of a few showers and 

thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Although, 

with bulk shear values around/just below 30 knots, we're not 

anticipating any severe weather at this time. The other aspect 

that we'll be keeping an eye on this weekend are temperatures, as 

there is the potential for records to be met or exceeded 

(especially on Sunday). Here is a summary of the record maximum 

high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday:



March 21st

Huntsville: 90 degrees in 1907 

Muscle Shoals: 86 degrees 1966



March 22nd

Huntsville: 88 degrees in 1907

Muscle Shoals: 89 degrees in 1907



Forecast highs are currently in the lower to mid 80s for most 

locations on Saturday, which are just shy of the record max highs.

The other caveat will be if shower/storm chances dampen 

temperatures a bit in the afternoon. The better probability (and 

higher confidence) of records being met or exceeded is on Sunday. 

Expect warm temperatures at night as well, since lows in the mid 

50s to lower 60s are anticipated this weekend. Lastly, it may be 

breezy on Sunday as a cold front approaches the region for early 

next week (discussed more below), with sustained southwest winds 

around 10 mph and gusts to between 15-20 mph.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday night through Thursday)

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Overall, there are little significant changes in the overall

synoptic pattern through the mid-week period aside from a weak

cold front expected to move through the area on Monday. While this

won't bring any rain to the area, we will notice cooler temps in

the 70s Monday afternoon and in the low to mid 40s overnight 

Monday into Tuesday. Another weak upper wave will bring low

chances for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but

moisture may be a little more sufficient with this system and may

drive PoPs up in future updates. Ridging begins to expand to the

east toward the end of the long term period and will result in

another warming trend and dry conditions.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026There have been no significant changes to previous aviation 

forecast reasoning, as VFR conditions will continue at the 

terminals this forecast period (featuring sct-bkn Ci, as well as a

sct Cu field during the daylight hours). Lgt SE sfc winds will 

veer to SW and strengthen to 8G16 kts by 15Z, before subsiding 

once again this evening. Conditions appear a bit more conducive 

for the development of patchy BR/FG prior to the end of the valid 

TAF period early Sat morning.



&&



.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...26

SHORT TERM....26

LONG TERM....25

AVIATION...70/DD