FXUS64 KHUN 191705

AFDHUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



...New AVIATION...



.NEAR TERM...

(Rest of Today and Tonight)

Issued at 1102 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Today into this evening, our primary concern will be heat. As we

remain influenced by an area of sfc high pressure, high

temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices up to

105-108 degrees will be possible primarily along and west of I-65.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for these areas through 8 PM CT

tonight. One thing that may limit or discourage these temperatures

will be the potential for showers/thunderstorms and subsequent

increased cloud cover late this afternoon into this evening. CAMs

are hinting at the potential for thunderstorms to form ahead of 

the incoming cold front through northwest Alabama and portions of 

southern middle Tennessee. Sufficient instability and low level 

lapse rates will allow for potentially gusty winds as well as 

frequent lightning with any stronger storms that are realized. 

Additionally, PWATs in the 1.7-1.9" range will be just below the 

90th percentile sounding climatology per BMX. Therefore, storms 

will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall. 



Tonight, areas that receive rainfall this afternoon into the

evening hours will have a low chance of patchy fog formation.

However, lingering cloud cover should discourage widespread fog

formation. Low temperatures should drop into the low to mid 70s.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Wednesday through Friday)

Issued at 1102 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Our main feature to watch in the short term will be a cold front

that is forecast to move in on Wednesday evening into Thursday as

an upper level trough shifts eastward into the Tennessee Valley. 

Ahead of and along the front, increased chances of 

showers/thunderstorms are forecast with some storms having the 

potential to be strong- bringing gusty winds and frequent 

lightning as a result of continued sufficient environmental 

instability. Lack of wind shear will discourage any widespread 

severe potential, however, locally damaging winds with any strong 

storm cannot be completely ruled out. 



Increased heat will continue to be a concern Wednesday, however,

we are currently forecasting most areas to stay below Heat

Advisory criteria. Isolated areas in NW AL and portions of N

Central AL are forecast to reach up to 105-106 heat index,

however, most spots should be in the 99-102 range as cloud cover

and increased rain chances persist over portions of the area.

Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s. Despite the lack

of heat product, we continue to urge everyone to stay hydrated,

avoid strenuous outdoor activities, and never leave pets or people

in vehicles. 



After the front moves through, we will cool down Thursday and

through the weekend along with continued daily low-medium rain 

chances. Highs on Thursday and Friday are forecast to reach the 

upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices remaining below 100 

degrees. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 1102 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Remaining in a troughing pattern through the weekend, low to

medium chances of daily rainfall continues. Our main feature to

look forward to (for those of us who are growing tired of the

heat) will be another cold front moving through the area on

Sunday- stemming from a low pressure system set to move into the

Ohio Valley. Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms

are possible along and ahead of the cold front, which will be

capable of becoming strong with threats of gusty winds and

frequent lighting along with heavy rainfall. Behind this cold 

front, temperatures are forecast to cool down to highs in the low 

to mid 80s (possibly even isolated areas dropping into the upper 

70s) with overnight lowsin the upper 50s to mid 60s through early

next week. These cooler temperatures will be accompanied by dry 

conditions.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



VFR conditions are forecast at both KMSL and KHSV through the TAF

period, however, a low chance of MVFR conditions is possible this

evening at KMSL due to potential showers/storms. Amendments may be

needed if these storms are realized. Additionally, a low chance of

patchy fog will be possible tonight, which could drop visibilities

into MVFR categories early Wednesday morning. However, confidence

in this is too low to include this in the official TAF package.  



&&



.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>007-016.



TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096.



&&



$$



NEAR TERM...HC

SHORT TERM....HC

LONG TERM....HC

AVIATION...HC