FXUS64 KHUN 191445

AFDHUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

945 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 945 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



 - We will have a high chance (60-70%) for record breaking 

   maximum temperatures on Sunday. 



&&



.NEAR TERM...

(Rest of Today and Tonight)

Issued at 945 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



After a cool start to the week, today will bring a much welcomed

pattern change. While WNW flow will be maintained aloft, surface

flow will increase from the south as high pressure builds to our

west over the mid Atlantic. This will support WAA throughout the 

day along with decent moisture return rising our temps back into 

the high 60s/low 70s and dew points to the mid/high 40s. High 

clouds passing through the day will mitigate how warm we get. 



Tonight, WAA will continue keeping temps well above freezing and

ending our near term threat for any additional frost or freeze

products. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Friday through Sunday)

Issued at 945 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Through the short term, high pressure will build along the Gulf

coast inducing prolonged SSW flow. This will support a strong WAA

regime through the weekend with highs rising from the mid 70s on

Friday to the mid to potentially high 80s on Sunday. While the

high pressure will suppress any widespread rain chances, we will

be monitoring Saturday for a low chance for some summer like pop

up showers and thunderstorms. The warm and moist environment will

support some low instability Saturday afternoon. A very weak

passing shortwave aloft will provide additional credence to our

low afternoon storm chances with the limiting factor being a

surface feature to support convective initiation. Should we see 

any sort of surface boundary develop Saturday afternoon

(temp/moisture gradient, outflow boundary) some pop up

thunderstorms will be possible. Again this is currently a low

chance, any storms that do develop will remain sub severe. 



Our attention will quickly switch to Sunday as the strong high

surface high pressure and anomalously high 850 and 500 mb temps 

will support a fairly high chance for record breaking temps. Our 

current forecast has highs about 15-20 degrees above normal for 

this time of year on Sunday in the mid 80s. NBM and LREF guidance 

support a high (60-70%) chance of breaking local high temp records

at HSV (83 in 1991) and MSL (82 in 2011). 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 921 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026



Warm conditions continue on Sunday as the influence of high

pressure to our west remains strong. Expect highs to once again

return to the low to mid 80s. A cold front attempts to push

through Sunday night into Monday, but ensemble guidance keeps the

area dry. This will be a feature to watch, as latest model

guidance does show precip across KY/N TN.  However, it will be a 

bit cooler to start the work week with temperatures on Monday 

through Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Behind the cold

front, northwest flow takes shape bringing a series of shortwave

through the area. Lots of uncertainty in timing of these features,

but at least a low chance of showers is expected Tuesday into

Wednesday. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR conditions should continue across the greater TN Valley into

Fri morning. Light E-SE winds this morning, will veer to the SW at

5-10 kt later this morning and in the afternoon. Winds this

evening should become light from the SE, generally less than 5 kt.

A NW flow will bring periods of high clouds across the area, with

mainly scattered to at times broken cirrus expected. 



&&



.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...RAD

SHORT TERM....RAD

LONG TERM....GH

AVIATION...RSB