FXUS64 KHUN 030030

AFDHUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

630 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1014 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



 - Medium to high chances of rain on Tuesday afternoon and

   evening. 



 - Dry conditions are forecast from Wednesday into the upcoming

   weekend.



&&



.NEAR TERM...

(Tonight)

Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



Cold surface high pressure that brought chilly conditions across

the Tennessee Valley this past weekend was now over Florida. While 

the coldest air associated with this high was impacting areas well

to our south, some moderation in temperatures was occurring across 

the Tennessee Valley. 2 PM temperatures locally have risen from

the mid 40s middle Tennessee to low/mid 50s Northern Alabama under 

sunny skies. Highs may inch up another degree or two, before

cooling tonight and bottoming out in the low/mid 30s.



A deep southerly flow, especially across Texas will upglide (best

seen around 295K) ahead of an approaching area of low pressure

more to the west. This upglide will produce shower activity 

across southern and central Texas tonight, with the precipitation 

spreading eastward as we go into the late night. New model 

guidance was trending even slower than before, with the precip not

reaching the area until after daybreak Tuesday. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tuesday through Wednesday night)

Issued at 1014 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



The aformentioned showers should reach the forecast area a couple

of hours after daybreak. Given a later start of the showers, will

maintain an all liquid phase of precipitation. Despite the clouds

and good rain chances, high temperatures should rise into the

low/mid 50s. Although modest to strong shear will accompany the

showers, instability is forecast to remain very low, thus no

thunder is expected. The new blends have come in wetter than 

previous runs, with total rainfall amounts of around 1/2", up from

around 1/3". This should help alleviate a long-term dry spell 

that the area has been in. 



A cold front with this system is forecast to move in a WNW-ESE

manner across the area Tuesday evening, with showers ending

likewise. The coldest air will not arrive until well after the

showers have ended, thus no wintry precip is expected. Lows Tue

night should range in the low/mid 30s. Post frontal clouds look to

persist after the front passes and colder air filters in. With

winter-like temperatures returning, high temperatures on Wednesday

will only rise into the low/mid 40s, with NW winds of 5-15 mph.

Colder Wed night with lows around 20 degrees. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday through Sunday) 

Issued at 801 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



After the trough and front that brings rain on Wednesday shifts 

southeast, deep layer northwest flow will follow late this week into

next weekend with a ridge position in the Rockies shifting into 

Plains states. Although no bitterly cold air is expected, a roller 

coaster of temperatures will occur, with intervals of moderate

warming and cooling. After highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s

Thursday, readings reach the lower to middle 50s Friday, then drop

back into the 40s to around 50 Saturday. Then its back into the lower

to middle 50s Sunday. With a continental airmass and dry air,

temperatures will still dip below freezing each morning through 

Sunday.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 630 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



VFR conditions are expected to continue at the HSV/MSL terminals 

this evening and overnight, although a notable increase in the 

coverage of high-lvl Cs is anticipated within the next 1-2 hrs 

before transitioning into an overcast layer prior to 12Z. Current 

thinking is that the combination of increasing clouds aloft and a 

lgt but persistent SSW wind will inhibit development of patchy 

FZBR/FZFG invof the airports, but this could certainly occur in 

wind-protected valleys. SSW flow will increase to 8G16 kts and 

cloud bases will begin to descend more rapidly from W-to-E btwn 

12-18Z, as lgt SHRA overspread the region ahead of a decaying area

of low pressure approaching from the west. Precipitation 

intensity will increase by early aftn (19Z/MSL and 20Z/HSV), with 

MVFR vsby reductions and IFR cigs noted thru the end of the 

forecast period.



&&



.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

TN...None.



&&



$$



NEAR TERM...RSB

SHORT TERM...RSB

LONG TERM...17

AVIATION...70/DD