FXUS64 KFWD 211043

AFDFWD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX

543 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Thunderstorm chances of 20-30% will continue today with the

  arrival of a weak cold front. A few thunderstorms may produce

  strong downburst wind gusts and small hail this afternoon and

  evening. 

 

- Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will 

  prevail through the remainder of the workweek. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Tuesday)

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



Ascent from a mid-level shortwave brought scattered showers and

thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area on Sunday, and 

modest lift from this feature may continue to support isolated 

precip through the early morning hours today. The synoptic scale 

frontal boundary and surface trough axis remains northwest of the 

forecast area this morning draped through the TX Panhandle and 

southern Oklahoma, but they'll make southward progress into North

Texas later today resulting in a subtle north/northeast wind 

shift. There will be minimal temperature contrast across this 

boundary however, and highs will still reach the 90s across the 

entire area. Additional convective development is expected through

the peak heating hours as strong destabilization occurs, and 

coverage should be maximized near the convergent surface trough 

axis as well as any residual outflow boundaries still in place 

from convection on Sunday evening. Activity will be scattered and 

disorganized, but the thermodynamic environment will be supportive

of strong or marginally severe downburst wind gusts along with 

small hail. PoPs of 20-30% will be broad-brushed across most of 

the region, with any activity beginning to progress off to the 

south by late this evening. 



Drier northeasterly low-level flow will advect lower dewpoints

into the area on Tuesday as the surface moist axis pivots into 

West Texas. This should keep convective chances confined mainly 

southwest and west of the CWA, but low PoPs of 20% or less will be

carried roughly along/west of Highway 281 through Tuesday 

afternoon. Along with the arrival of slightly drier air, a return 

to mid-level ridging should keep most of the region subsident and

rain-free heading into the midweek period while above normal 

temperatures persist.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



Predominantly dry weather is forecast from midweek onward as

building heights aloft maintain above normal temperatures, while

large-scale subsidence limits rain chances. A reinforcing push of

dry air in east/northeast flow will maintain low dewpoints in the

50s and lower 60s, and this will result in less oppressive late 

season heat with heat index values near or below ambient 

temperatures. Highs will still be in the 90s for most of the area 

through the extended forecast period, about 5-10 degrees above 

normal for the first week of astronomical fall. Another breakdown

of the ridge axis and weak frontal intrusion could occur sometime

late this weekend or early next week which would be the next 

mentionable opportunity for rain.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 538 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions 

of the area mainly from mid afternoon into the evening hours 

which may briefly impact any of the TAF sites. A short window of 

VCTS has been maintained to advertise this potential, and 

convective outflows from nearby storms could also result in abrupt

wind shifts during this time period. Otherwise, wind speeds will 

generally be light and variable through most of the daytime before

eventually taking on a more uniform northeasterly direction by 

late afternoon or evening. VFR conditions will prevail. 



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  75  95  75 /  30  20  10  10 

Waco                97  74  97  74 /  30  30  20  10 

Paris               95  71  95  71 /  40  10   0   0 

Denton              97  71  94  70 /  30  20  10  10 

McKinney            95  70  94  70 /  30  20  10  10 

Dallas              98  76  96  76 /  30  20  10  10 

Terrell             97  72  96  73 /  40  20  10  10 

Corsicana           96  73  96  74 /  40  30  10  10 

Temple              98  72  98  73 /  30  20  10  10 

Mineral Wells       98  68  94  69 /  30  20  20  10 



&&



.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Stalley

LONG TERM....Stalley

AVIATION...Stalley