FXUS64 KFWD 211034 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 534 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record high temperatures are expected across parts of North and Central Texas through this weekend. - A grass fire threat will continue through next week given above normal temperatures and very low relative humidity. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 An anomalously strong 500 mb ridge over the Desert Southwest will begin to weaken a bit and flatten out as a series of shortwave troughs cross the northern Rockies. As it does, height rises will spread through the Central and Southern Plains today and Sunday keeping temperatures well above normal and rain chances at zero across North Texas. The early season heat will push high temperatures nearly 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of year with records in reach particularly on Sunday. The low level thermal gradient will set up this afternoon across our far western counties where temps will climb into the upper 90s, but flow off the surface will have a more southerly component as opposed to more westerly. This will limit downsloping warming to some degree and continues to be reflected in the short term guidance. We've continued to shave 1-2 degrees off the high temperature forecast through the weekend to account for this. On Sunday, a cold front will slide south and should be located across our far northwest counties by mid/late afternoon. There will likely be a band of very warm temperatures that develop in an area of compressional warming just ahead of the front where winds become light. A few spots will see temperatures likely top 100 degrees while low to mid 90s prevail elsewhere. With temperatures running well above normal and afternoon RH values dropping to 15-25% west of I-35, there will continue to be a threat for grass fires. This threat will be highest across our western counties where humidity is lowest. Generally light winds west of I-35 this afternoon will limit a more significant threat. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday. The aforementioned cold front will slide south Sunday night and will likely stall out across our southern counties during the day Monday. While no precipitation is expected, we will see temperatures cool 10-15 degrees across the northern half of the CWA. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Friday) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Mid level ridging will amplify again by early next week with temperatures steadily climbing through the week. Highs will top out in the low/mid 90s again by Wednesday and Thursday with no rainfall forecast through the week. Southerly winds will increase a bit during this time which will continue to support grass fire activity across the region. This threat will likely be highest on Wednesday and Thursday. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 VFR will prevail across the D10 airspace today with south winds (variable between 170-210 degrees) around 15 kt. Intermittent MVFR cigs well to the east of the airports this morning should remain mainly across east and southeast Texas. Otherwise, no significant aviation concerns are expected through the period. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 65 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 90 63 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 87 63 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 93 61 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 91 63 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 92 66 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell89 62 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 88 63 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 90 60 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 95 60 97 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$