FXUS64 KFWD 210550 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1250 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near record high temperatures are expected across parts of North and Central Texas through this weekend. - A grass fire threat will continue through next week given above normal temperatures and very low relative humidity. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 An anomalously strong 500 mb ridge over the Desert Southwest will begin to weaken a bit and flatten out as a series of shortwave troughs cross the northern Rockies. As it does, height rises will spread through the Central and Southern Plains today and Sunday keeping temperatures well above normal and rain chances at zero across North Texas. The early season heat will push high temperatures nearly 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of year with records in reach particularly on Sunday. The low level thermal gradient will set up this afternoon across our far western counties where temps will climb into the upper 90s, but flow off the surface will have a more southerly component as opposed to more westerly. This will limit downsloping warming to some degree and continues to be reflected in the short term guidance. We've continued to shave 1-2 degrees off the high temperature forecast through the weekend to account for this. On Sunday, a cold front will slide south and should be located across our far northwest counties by mid/late afternoon. There will likely be a band of very warm temperatures that develop in an area of compressional warming just ahead of the front where winds become light. A few spots will see temperatures likely top 100 degrees while low to mid 90s prevail elsewhere. With temperatures running well above normal and afternoon RH values dropping to 15-25% west of I-35, there will continue to be a threat for grass fires. This threat will be highest across our western counties where humidity is lowest. Generally light winds west of I-35 this afternoon will limit a more significant threat. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday. The aforementioned cold front will slide south Sunday night and will likely stall out across our southern counties during the day Monday. While no precipitation is expected, we will see temperatures cool 10-15 degrees across the northern half of the CWA. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Friday) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Mid level ridging will amplify again by early next week with temperatures steadily climbing through the week. Highs will top out in the low/mid 90s again by Wednesday and Thursday with no rainfall forecast through the week. Southerly winds will increase a bit during this time which will continue to support grass fire activity across the region. This threat will likely be highest on Wednesday and Thursday. Dunn && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds (variable between 170-210 degrees) at 10 to 15 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected through the period. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 62 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 89 60 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 86 59 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 90 57 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 90 60 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 90 63 95 67 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 88 59 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 88 60 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 90 58 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 93 58 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$