FXUS64 KFWD 191839 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA 139 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerously hot and humid conditions will continue into tomorrow. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of the area now through 7 PM tomorrow evening as a result. - Thunderstorm chances will steadily tick upward (30-60%) through the middle of the week as a frontal boundary approaches the region. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/ We're coming towards the end of the hottest days of the year so far across North Texas as a synoptic scale transition beginning in the next 36-48 hours gives us a reprieve from triple-digit temperatures. That said, we have a few more days of heat to deal with as ridging continues retreating into the Intermountain West. Being positioned at the eastern periphery of this ridge will lend us a convective environment that is still conducive for thunderstorms with short range guidance giving a greater than 40 percent chance of precipitation amounts greater than 0.01 inch for most areas on Wednesday. Despite the potential for isolated thunderstorms (with typical sub-severe summertime hazards, lightning, downdraft winds etc.), dew points in the 70s combined with temperature maximums in the upper 90s will maintain hazardous heat through the day Wednesday. Cooler and conditions will begin to arrive through the end of the week as northerly winds pick up in speed behind the weak frontal boundary. /16/ && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Through next Tuesday Night/ Even cooler conditions could arrive across North Texas by next week. This is due to a stronger frontal boundary anticipated by long-range guidance to bring some temperature maximums below 90 degrees by next Tuesday. Until then, drier air will slowly continue to filter in, eventually pushing the 70-degree isodrosotherm further into Southeast Texas while diurnally-driven rain chances remain at their lowest in the forecast period (below 20 percent). Temperatures will stay near normal this weekend, with upper 90s being more of an exception instead of as widespread as it has been this month. By the middle of next week, flow aloft will take on a northwesterly component as ridging out west continues to weaken. /16/ && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /19/18Z TAF Update/ VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites early this afternoon, with a cu field between 4-6kft feet in development. Scattered high clouds also persist, especially near KACT where a convective complex exists to the south. Isolated thunderstorms will develop within a more mature cu field later this afternoon and into the evening. A VCTS has been added to all sites to account for this. Isolated nature of the convection will limit the need for TEMPO groups but this may need to be adjusted in real-time depending on where convection initiates. Quiet conditions after 20/00z with SCT-BKN high clouds. Cu field again 20/15-16z with better potential for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Winds E/NE 5-7kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight and dancing between NW/NE around 5-6kts by mid-morning Wed. Kovacik && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 97 77 95 / 5 10 40 30 20 Waco 99 77 96 75 94 / 30 5 50 40 40 Paris 101 74 96 73 94 / 10 30 30 30 20 Denton 101 77 98 74 97 / 5 20 30 20 20 McKinney 101 76 97 74 95 / 5 10 30 20 20 Dallas 102 80 99 78 97 / 5 10 40 30 20 Terrell 101 76 97 74 94 / 10 10 40 30 30 Corsicana 100 78 97 75 95 / 20 5 50 40 40 Temple 99 75 97 73 94 / 30 10 50 40 40 Mineral Wells 100 75 97 73 96 / 10 10 40 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-102>107- 118>123-133>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$