FXUS64 KFWD 060633 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 133 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms are possible mainly across Central and East Texas today, a few of which may be capable of producing hail. - A cooler and mostly dry end to the workweek is forecast with temperatures near or below normal today through Friday. - Another cold frontal passage may bring showers and storms to the area over the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 A cold front has advanced through much of the forecast area into Central Texas as of midnight, and will move entirely south of the CWA early this morning. In its wake, post-frontal stratus will remain anchored over most of the area through the entire day, and this will keep highs about 10-15 degrees below normal, mostly in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lingering ascent near the stalled 850mb front will persist through the next ~18 hours, and this could allow for scattered showers and isolated storms from early this morning through late afternoon. However, without a more focused lifting mechanism and an absence of meaningful mid/upper-level synoptic ascent, much of the 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE still present above the frontal surface will likely go unrealized. We'll continue to advertise a potential for elevated hail-producing thunderstorms, mainly in Central and East Texas during the daytime today, but the overall potential for strong or severe convection within the CWA appears quite low at this time. Cloudy and seasonably cool conditions will linger into Thursday as the entire area remains within the post-frontal airmass. Rain chances will be absent from the area though, as zonal flow and modest height rises prevail aloft. Overall, it'll be a quite pleasant day with gradually clearing skies while high temperatures reach the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Southerly return flow will resume on Friday, and modest lift due to an upstream disturbance could result in scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across Central Texas as moisture recovery resumes. Warm southerly flow will aid temperatures in returning to near or slightly above normal following the midweek cooldown, with highs reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s. A more pronounced warmup will occur over the upcoming weekend, and highs should return to the mid 80s to lower 90s both Saturday and Sunday. Guidance remains rather variable in terms of the upper pattern evolution beyond Day 3, and can be characterized with below normal predictability through the medium and extended range. However, a large percentage of guidance does indicate that another frontal intrusion is likely to occur sometime between late Saturday and early Monday which will offer the next chance at more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. This would also result in knocking temperatures down into the low/mid 80s to begin next week should this frontal passage materialize. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 A cold front has cleared all Metroplex TAF sites as of 06z with MVFR cigs at 2-3 kft now prevailing with a north wind around 10 kts. The front will pass through Waco before sunrise, also resulting in post-frontal stratus and a north wind shift. Scattered showers and isolated storms are possible this morning through early afternoon behind the front with sufficient elevated instability still in place. However, the potential for storms at any of the terminals is too low to warrant inclusion in the TAFs at this time. MVFR cigs should lift to VFR this afternoon, but a quick return to MVFR cigs heights appears likely by ~06z tonight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 60 76 55 / 10 10 20 10 Waco 86 67 79 59 / 0 20 30 10 Paris 85 57 71 53 / 10 30 30 10 Denton 89 54 73 51 / 0 10 10 0 McKinney 90 58 73 53 / 10 20 20 10 Dallas 90 61 78 57 / 20 10 20 10 Terrell 85 61 76 54 / 10 30 40 10 Corsicana 84 67 81 59 / 0 20 50 20 Temple 84 68 84 58 / 0 20 30 10 Mineral Wells 93 55 77 50 / 0 10 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley