FXUS64 KEWX 251105 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 605 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms today into tonight with a continued potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall. - Warm temperatures through early next week, then much cooler, below average temperatures middle to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 As advertised, a line of showers and thunderstorms formed earlier and has moved over the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 corridor. There is also a cluster over the Del Rio area into the Edwards Plateau. The line will continue moving to the east and exit to the Coastal Plains and east of US 77 in the next couple of hours while the cluster moves east through the early morning hours. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail, as well as locally heavy rainfall rates that may cause flash, small stream, and urban flooding. Will maintain the Severe Thunderstorm Watch through its expiration time of 3 AM CDT. The models and ensembles show continue redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms through the morning into the afternoon and early evening. The activity then moves off to our east around midnight or shortly thereafter. This redevelopment is due to destabilization by heating and forcing by an upper level trough, a strong jet streak, mid level impulse, and a Pacific front. Favored areas are the Hill Country to along and east of the I-35 corridor. Moderately steep mid level lapse rates and shear indicate a potential for severe storms with large to very large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rains are possible and may cause flooding, especially across areas that received heavy rain with the ongoing activity. Marginal to slight risks continue to be highlighted by SPC and WPC for severe storms and heavy rains, respectively. Will maintain the Flood Watch through 1 PM CDT, however it may be reconfigured, expanded, or cancelled depending on later development. Fair skies and warm temperatures are expected on dry northwesterly flow aloft on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 A dry northwesterly flow aloft prevails next week. A deepening upper level low dropping south over the Plains to lower Mississippi Valley by mid week drags a strong cold front across our area on Tuesday. After temperatures being above to well above average so far this October, cold advection takes them below to well below average on Wednesday to close out the month. No rain is currently forecast for next week. However, some models and ensembles indicate a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two with the passage of the cold front on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 LIFR to IFR to MVFR cigs are forecast for the local terminals through late this morning. Afterward, VFR conditions are in store for the most part with scattered showers and storms affecting the Austin area airports mid to late afternoon. Wind directions are likely to be variable during parts of the morning and afternoon, however, a northwest to north flow is forecast mid to late afternoon and continue through the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 In wake of the frontal passage, minimum humidities in the 20s are expected across most areas on Wednesday. Winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph may result in elevated fire weather conditions as the impact of ongoing wetting rains begins to wane. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 80 63 84 61 / 90 40 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 81 62 84 58 / 90 40 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 83 63 86 59 / 60 30 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 76 60 80 59 / 90 30 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 62 89 61 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 60 81 59 / 90 40 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 83 61 87 59 / 40 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 83 62 85 59 / 70 40 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 81 63 82 59 / 90 60 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 83 65 86 62 / 60 20 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 86 66 88 63 / 40 20 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ171>173-183>194- 202>208. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...17