FXUS64 KEWX 030640 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1240 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer, with more seasonable temperatures forecast this week with low rain chances Tuesday for the Coastal Plains. - Brief cooldown Thursday before above normal temperatures Friday and into the weekend && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 We remain under a highly amplified pattern aloft across the CONUS with elongated ridging in the west and deep troughing to our east. As a result we should see highs in the 60s with even some low to mid 70s possible especially for southern areas for today. We could also see areas of patchy to dense fog early this morning as dewpoints and temps rise to meet each other thus increasing the saturation point. Still not enough confidence to issue a Dense Fog Advisory as uncertainty remains. It seems like a broken record at this point but every new model run, the chances for precip across all but the extreme eastern areas of the Coastal Plains continues to diminish. About the only chance our area has of seeing precip is from some streamer showers that could form out ahead of the weak cold front progged to move through the area throughout the day. As has been alluded to in previous discussions, this cold front will bring about a slight cooldown and a change of wind direction for our area. Tuesday night cold air continues to funnel in on the backside of this front with lows several degrees cooler than last nights lows with most remaining in the low to mid 40s. Highs Wednesday will be slightly cooler with many remaining in the low to mid 60s as we remain in north to northeasterly flow, which is seasonable for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Wednesday night a positively tilted trough works its way across our area bringing in much colder temps for Thursday morning than we have seen recently. Not quite buying the lower solutions some models are producing however temps could go close to freezing across the Hill Country with mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Highs and lows return to more seasonable levels by Thursday as return southerly flow resumes across the region. The ridge out west tries to work its way slowly east by Friday. As we approach the weekend we could see highs several degrees above normal and even some spots hitting 80 as the ridge over the western CONUS moves directly over us. The NBM has officially caught on to this and now shows highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday night we see an upper level trough try to make its way across the desert southwest and into TX by Monday. Several global models are disagreeing with just exactly how this unfolds and due to the current transient pattern with either a possible rex block or an elongated negatively tilted omega block pattern forming across the CONUS, confidence remains low beyond this timeframe. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 MVFR CIGs are expanding over the I-35 Corridor and will eventually spread west to DRT toward daybreak. An active LLJ should help minimize the fog potential and promote the stratus expansion. Later this morning with the approach of a front, a surface low develops over the Edwards Plateau and moves east toward Central TX. This should shift the winds to W and SW, and mix the lower CIGs up to VFR levels in the early afternoon. Afterwards the front arrives to I-35 closer to 00Z, clear out all the lower to mid level clouds and picks up the winds to 10 to 15 knots for a few hours. The front is not particularly strong, and the winds could fall below10 knots just outside the 30 hour TAF time window. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 71 43 65 38 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 43 66 37 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 44 66 37 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 67 40 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 43 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 41 64 36 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 72 44 70 36 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 43 66 37 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 44 66 37 / 20 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 47 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 74 48 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...18