FXUS64 KCRP 210531 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 - Potential for elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains daily through Monday - Dry weather and warming trend continues into the middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Minimal changes were required with today's forecast package with ridging remaining in control aloft through most of the period. This mid to upper level high pressure system will de-amplify early next week with an approaching low over the western Gulf, but another ridge will quickly build behind it. Generally rain-free and warm conditions can be expected across South Texas through the weekend into early next week, with low rain chances (<10%) over the marine zones Tuesday in response to the increased moisture with the approaching low. In terms of hazards, Elevated fire weather concerns remain in the forecast daily due to the combination of critically dry fuels and minimum RH values below 30% inland during the afternoon hours. The caveat though, will be the winds, which are forecast to remain below criteria at least through the weekend. For more information please refer to the Fire Weather discussion below. There is a low to medium chance of fog development (20-50%) tonight across portions of the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. Winds will be light inland (<10 kts), with dew point depressions around 1-3 degrees F, and dry mid-levels. Having said that, based on modeled soundings, the saturated layer is very close to the surface limiting my confidence in development. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight with some patchy shallow fog possible across the Coastal Plains to Victoria Crossroads where MVFR VSBYs have been included in TAFs for VCT/ALI developing between 10-14Z, but is generally not expected to last that entire period. Tomorrow afternoon, gusty southeasterly winds up to around 25-30 knots can be expected with elevated sustained winds extending into the overnight hours for tomorrow night. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly breeze will persist into the middle of next week. Winds will occasionally strengthen to a fresh breeze (BF 5) over the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas this weekend. No rain chances are expected at this time with seas between 2-4 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Although winds will remain generally below critical criteria, occasional wind gusts around 20 mph in combination with relative humidity of 15-30% and critically dry fuels over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains, will promote elevated fire weather concerns. Since wind gusts probabilities greater than 20 mph is less than 20%, I have held off on issuing any fire products but will need to be monitored. We can expect similar conditions daily into the middle of next week with hottest temperatures nearing 100 degrees occurring this weekend over the Brush Country. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 62 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 59 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 62 95 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 59 94 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 65 80 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 59 97 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 61 91 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 66 79 66 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANM/88 AVIATION...BF/80