FXUS64 KCRP 202326 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 626 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 - Potential for elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains daily through Monday - Dry weather and warming trend continues into the middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Minimal changes were required with today's forecast package with ridging remaining in control aloft through most of the period. This mid to upper level high pressure system will de-amplify early next week with an approaching low over the western Gulf, but another ridge will quickly build behind it. Generally rain-free and warm conditions can be expected across South Texas through the weekend into early next week, with low rain chances (<10%) over the marine zones Tuesday in response to the increased moisture with the approaching low. In terms of hazards, Elevated fire weather concerns remain in the forecast daily due to the combination of critically dry fuels and minimum RH values below 30% inland during the afternoon hours. The caveat though, will be the winds, which are forecast to remain below criteria at least through the weekend. For more information please refer to the Fire Weather discussion below. There is a low to medium chance of fog development (20-50%) tonight across portions of the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. Winds will be light inland (<10 kts), with dew point depressions around 1-3 degrees F, and dry mid-levels. Having said that, based on modeled soundings, the saturated layer is very close to the surface limiting my confidence in development. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 VFR conditions will continue to prevail across South Texas this forecast. Brief MVFR vsby over ALI/VCT between 10-14Z with MVFR cig threat at VCT. Otherwise, expected VFR conditions to dominate. South to southeasterly winds this afternoon of around 15 knots will weaken to 10 knots or less overnight. However, winds will be noticeably stronger tomorrow afternoon, especially over CRP where we can see southeasterly winds sustained around 20 knots gusting to around 30 knots. No rain chances in the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly breeze will persist into the middle of next week. Winds will occasionally strengthen to a fresh breeze (BF 5) over the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas this weekend. No rain chances are expected at this time with seas between 2-4 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Although winds will remain generally below critical criteria, occasional wind gusts around 20 mph in combination with relative humidity of 15-30% and critically dry fuels over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains, will promote elevated fire weather concerns. Since wind gusts probabilities greater than 20 mph is less than 20%, I have held off on issuing any fire products but will need to be monitored. We can expect similar conditions daily into the middle of next week with hottest temperatures nearing 100 degrees occurring this weekend over the Brush Country. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 62 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 59 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 62 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 58 96 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 64 79 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 59 98 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 59 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 65 79 66 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRPWATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANM/88 AVIATION...EMF/94