FXUS64 KCRP 200724 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 224 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 222 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 - Potential for elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains daily through Monday\ - Medium to high chance of fog over the Coastal Plains early this morning (30-50%) and Saturday morning (60-80%) - Dry weather and warming trend continues into the middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 This honking ridge over the SW CONUS will slowly move eastward and de-amplify early next week as a mid-level low over the SW Gulf disrupts the synoptic flow. However, another ridge will follow soon after in the middle of next week to keep very warm and rain-free conditions in place across South Texas as PWAT values struggle to exceed 1.0" the entire forecast. These ridges will create significant temperatures above the 90th percentile for much of Texas in the mid levels especially, resulting in well above normal temperatures at the surface. Highs in the mid to upper 90s inland over the Coastal Plains and Brush Country this weekend, with 90s persisting into the middle of next week. Lows will be persistent as well, in the low to mid 60s. We'll need to keep an eye on elevated fire weather potential once again this afternoon over inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. The limiting factor remains the weak winds, with less than a 20% percent chance of wind gusts greater than 20 mph in the afternoon. But relative humidity will likely drop as low as 20-30% with energy release component values in the 70-95th percentiles and fuels dry to critically dry. In addition to the abnormal warmth and elevated fire weather potential, there is a medium chance (30-50%) for fog over the Coastal Plains early this morning, increasing to a medium to high chance (60-80%) Saturday morning. This is due to dewpoints warming up a few degrees while skies remain mostly clear, promoting efficient radiational cooling. Winds will remain 5-10 mph and not necessarily calm, so dense fog is less of a concern at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 VFR conditions expected across most of South Texas overnight with MVFR VSBYs for ALI/VCT. Smoke from a fire in Kenedy county may cause hazy conditions across ALI/CRP but is not currently impacting VSBYs. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly breeze will persist into the middle of next week. Winds will occasionally strengthen to a fresh breeze (BF 5) over the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas this weekend. No rain chances are expected at this time with seas between 2-4 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Although winds will remain generally below critical criteria, occasional wind gusts around 20 mph in combination with relative humidity of 15-30% and critically dry fuels over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains, will promote elevated fire weather concerns. Since wind gusts probabilities greater than 20 mph is less than 20%, I have held off on issuing any fire products but will need to be monitored. We can expect similar conditions daily into the middle of next week with hottest temperatures nearing 100 degrees occurring this weekend over the Brush Country. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 85 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 85 59 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 93 61 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 92 58 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 79 64 80 65 / 0 0 0 0Cotulla 94 58 98 59 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 89 59 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 78 65 79 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...BF/80