FXUS64 KCRP 071106 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 606 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 In the wake of yesterday's cold front, cooler and drier will prevail across the region to begin the week as the ridge settles into the region. Highs will only top out in the 70s across the area today under mostly clear skies. Moisture will begin gradually returning to the region through midweek thus warming temperatures. Highs will return to the 80s mainly out west by Tuesday reaching 90 by Wednesday. In summary, enjoy the cooler temperatures while you still can! && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Key Messages: - Near normal temperatures return this week - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Wednesday through the weekend Surface high pressure will continue moving eastward Tuesday night promoting the return of onshore flow by Wednesday. This will advect a warmer air mass bringing temperatures back to near normal values. A reinforcing boundary will sweep across the region this weekend, but with the lack of cold air advection, am just expecting a direr air mass to move into the region. Although onshore flow returns Wednesday, PWAT values of less than 1" will hamper any possibility of shower development. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entirety of the TAF cycle. Winds will be out of the north-northwest around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots for the eastern sites, and light and variable at the western sites. All sites will return to light and variable this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until midmorning, for the offshore and the nearshore waters north of Port Aransas. A fresh to moderate breeze (BF 5-6) will continue to diminish through the day. By Monday night, the winds will be north gentle to moderate (BF 3-4). Gentle (BF 3) southerly flow Tuesday night will continue through Wednesday before increasing to a more moderate level (BF 4) Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Gentle to light (3-4) winds will begin Thursday afternoon and continue into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Today relative humidity values are expected to plummet around 15-20% across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. Though winds are expected to remain light today, Energy Release Component values are in the 70-80th percentile. This will lead to an increased chance for elevated fire weather conditions across that region, therefore a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) was issued. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible through this weekend, mainly across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. Although winds will be on the weaker side, relative humidity values between 15-25% across the Brush Country and 25-50% across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads will hang around through Thursday before increasing a touch to 20-50% region wide Friday and 20-35% across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains this weekend. Energy Release Component (ERC) values will remain in the 70-80th percentile Wednesday and Thursday before increasing to the 75-89th percentile Friday through this weekend. The low minimum relative humidity values coupled with the moderate to high ERC values will be enough to promote elevated to critical fire weather conditons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 74 48 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 71 42 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 77 47 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 74 45 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 72 55 74 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 76 46 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 74 46 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 72 59 73 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ255-270- 275. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP/92 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...NP/92