FXUS64 KCRP 062332 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 632 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 A midlevel trough will continue to move east across and north of the area tonight through Monday night. As the trough axis moves to the east, the pressure gradient will relax, diminishing our winds to a more light to moderate flow over land. Dry air will keep our rain changes around zero. Tidal level continue to drop so, in spite of long period swell, the probability of minor coastal flooding has decreased significantly. However, the continued long period swell will contribute to a moderate risk of dangerous rip currents through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Key Message: - Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions Tuesday through the end of the week (See Fire Weather Discussion for more information) Not much to talk about in the long term forecast as no impactful systems are expected across the region over the next 7 days. The synoptic mid-level pattern during the period will feature several Canadian lows/troughing affecting the eastern half of the CONUS, and high pressure/ridging building across the western CONUS. Finally, an Alaskan low drops down the coast near the Pacific Northwest. These features will result in a meridional pattern across the U.S. with northwesterly flow over Texas. The atmospheric profile will be dry with PWAT values progged to range from around 0.5-0.90" which is near or slightly above the 25th percentile. A cold front Friday is expected to result in a wind shift with PoPs expected to remain near zero over the entire period. Temperatures will trend up this week, Tuesday will start out in the mid 70s to 80s but by the of the period, look for highs to be in the mid 80s to 90s. Lows overnight generally stay within the 50s but warm into the 60s by early next week. Conditions will be accompanied by partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and light winds. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 With high pressure building into South Texas, CIGs and VSBYs are expected to remain VFR over the foreseeable future. Winds will be the main concern again. Winds will maintain northwest to north, this evening, but diminish to under 10 knots by Monday morning, and remain that way through 00z/Tue at the least. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 North winds will gradually diminish from fresh to strong (BF 5-6) tonight to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze Monday, then to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze Monday night. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect into Monday morning, though conditions in the bays may improve as soon as tonight. A light to gentle (BF 2-3) onshore breeze is then expected for the remainder of the week, with brief period of moderate (BF 4) flow at times. Winds will briefly turn to the northeast Thursday night into Friday morning, before onshore flow returns Friday afternoon. Chances for precipitation remain near zero for the upcoming week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Relative humidity values will remain below 35% for all but the immediate coast and the Energy Release component values will be greater than 50% through the week. Generally light to occasionally moderate winds will help to mitigate some of our fire weather concerns, but elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected each day over the Brush Country and portions of the Coastal Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 48 74 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 41 72 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 46 79 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 46 75 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 51 75 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 44 79 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 47 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 55 72 59 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...LS/77 LONG TERM....BF/80 AVIATION...JSL/86