FXUS64 KCRP 051117 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 617 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts Tuesday. - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms return mid week. - Cold front expected Thursday. - Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high risk of rip currents possible Thursday-Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 As mid-level ridging builds across the region over the next couple of days expect above normal temperatures across South Texas. Highs over the Brush Country could touch 100 on Tuesday. There is a moderate risk of heat related impacts associated with this rise in temperatures. Our next cold front is set to move through on Thursday. Ahead of the front on Wednesday, deep moisture will be increasing, and we'll start to look for the potential for convection. Most of the area is likely to remain capped through the day, and thus the convection potential is limited, but the cap looks marginally weaker in the Victoria Crossroads, so we will maintain a low potential for showers and storms there. If we do get convection to develop, there is sufficient instability and wind shear to see a stronger storm or two. Rain chances increase across the rest of the area Wednesday night and Thursday as the front moves through and lingering into Friday when the mid-level trough kicks out. Rainfall totals at this time look to largely stay below half an inch, however localized higher amounts are possible. Temperatures fall back below normal behind the front with highs in the 70s and 80s expected Thursday and Friday. Unsettled weather persists through the weekend as a mid-level weaknesses remain over the central part of the country. Temperatures will warm back to near or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions will be expected overnight with moderate to light winds. Conditions are expected to improve by mid to late morning from west to east. Winds are expected to pick up this afternoon around 15-20 knots with gusts around 25-30 knots mainly at the eastern terminals. Winds will die back down beginning in the evening. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 MVFR to IFR conditions will be expected through the next few with moderate to light winds. Conditions are expected to improve by mid to late morning from west to east. Winds are expected to pick up this afternoon around 15-20 knots with gusts around 25-30 knots mainly at the eastern terminals. Winds will die back down beginning in the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeast breeze expected tonight. A fresh (BF 5) onshore flow is expected to develop through this evening and continue through Tuesday. Winds will briefly reach advisory levels Tuesday afternoon for the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas through this evening. The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns the latter part of the week in response to an approaching cold front. A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northeast flow is expected to develop behind the cold front Thursday. Winds decrease and shift to the east-southeast Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Relative humidity values will generally remain at or above 35% through the forecast period. This, combined with winds generally less than 20 mph and ERC in the 0-40 percentile, will prevent fire weather concerns. Low to medium rain chances return Wednesday and continue through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi88 76 90 74 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 87 73 88 69 / 0 0 20 10 Laredo 100 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 20 Alice 95 75 95 73 / 0 0 10 10 Rockport 85 76 86 73 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 98 75 93 71 / 0 0 0 20 Kingsville 93 76 94 74 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 83 77 85 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ231-232-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...NP/92