FXUS64 KBRO 250543 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1243 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 -Much above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday across the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas ranchlands with continued threat for heat stress...until cooler temperatures finally arrive by the middle of next week. -Small Craft Advisories for difficult boating conditions due to 20 knot winds and choppy waves are in effect through this afternoon. -Moderate south-to-north longshore currents and choppy surf will make swimming difficult at the barrier island beaches today...with improvement by Sunday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A cold front pushing into Texas has increased the pressure gradient across the region, bringing breezy conditions across coastal areas and the Gulf through this afternoon. As a result of the increased pressure gradient, beach conditions will become hazardous this morning with the Rip Current Risk increasing from moderate to high. As the front pushes into central Texas by this evening, rain chances will increase slightly but latest guidance continues to lower these chances, now remaining under 20%. Sunday morning the front will wash out before passing through the region. Generally dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the forecast with temperatures remaining 5-10 degrees above normal through Tuesday. Another cold front is expected to push through the region late Tuesday/early Wendesday bringing a bit of a relief to the hot temperatures. This could also bring a low chance (10-20%) of rain late Tuesday night but the main impact will be cooler temperatures. Wednesday through Friday will likely be a few degrees below normal for afternoon high temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 With the core of the overnight squall line remaining well north of the RGV terminals, the main concern remains a period of gusty southerly winds from late morning through sunset, especially at Brownsville and Harlingen where gusts should reach or exceed 25 knots for several hours between noon and 6 PM. Prior to and after the surge, sustained southeast winds around 10-12 knots will preclude any fog/mist development, and skies will be mainly clear through mid morning before scattered VFR cumulus develops, reducing to few by mid to late afternoon. We may see some patchy MVFR few-scattered conditions Saturday evening as low level moisture thickens a bit...and have added into the forecast. Not expecting ceilings at this point but may need to be monitored. && .MARINE... Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A tightening pressure gradient has lead to elevated winds and seas on the waters off the lower Texas coast. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued until 7 PM tonight for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. Isolated to scattered showers will also be possible primarily today into tonight. Another cold front will move through the waters off the lower Texas coast Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, with winds increasing in its wake leading to the potential for Small Craft Caution or Small Craft Advisories Wednesday into Thursday as well as another chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Winds will need to be monitored next Wednesday and possibly Thursday, as relative humidity values fall into the teens and 20s. Right now, winds could be high enough, primarily along the coast, to pose a threat for wildfire spread. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 76 94 75 92 / 10 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 73 96 70 95 / 10 10 0 0 MCALLEN 75 99 74 98 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 97 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 79 86 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 92 73 90 / 10 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis LONG TERM....68-McGinnis AVIATION...52-Goldsmith