FXUS64 KBRO 211116 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 616 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Key Messages: * Unseasonably warm and rain-free weather conditions to persist through next weekend. * Day-to-day or near day-to-day elevated wildfire weather threat will persist through next weekend. * A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect for Starr, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Hidalgo, Inland Kenedy, Inland Willacy, and Inland Cameron counties from 1-7 PM CDT Saturday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Unseasonably warm and rain-free conditions will persist through next week. Driving our weather pattern is a behemoth 588-594 dam Sonoran heat dome, which currently is resulting in a record-breaking, early season heat wave over the Southwestern U.S. On the eastern flank of this heat ridge, northwesterly winds aloft will continue to stifle any rain chances. The aforementioned Southwest U.S. heat dome is expected to weaken slightly over the weekend into early next week before it begins to propagate eastward mid to late next week. High temperatures will range between the upper 80s to the mid 90s each day. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s through next weekend. Fire weather concerns will remain on the table through next week. The combination of low relative humidity (RH) values, an ongoing drought, and at times breezy conditions will result in day-to-day or near day-to-day elevated fire risks. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 No changes needed to the previous suite of TAFs. VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Favorable marine conditions will prevail through next week with low to moderate winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for an elevated fire weather threat has been issued for Starr, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Hidalgo, Inland Kenedy, Inland Willacy, and Inland Cameron counties from 1-7 PM CDT Saturday. Breezy south-southeast 20-ft winds 15-20 mph gusting as high as 35 mph are expected to take place on Saturday. Meanwhile, minimum relative humidity (RH) values are expected to range between 15-40%. The combination of breezy south-southeast winds, low relative humidity (RH) values, and an ongoing drought ranging between D2 (Severe Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) will result in an elevated risk for wildfires on Saturday. The Texas A&M Forest Service has outlooked the Northern Ranchlands under a "Very High Fire Risk" and the rest of Deep South Texas under a "High Risk" for wildfire danger on Saturday. Additionally, the Energy Release Component (ERC) will be elevated ranging between 75- 80%. Additional Fire Danger Statements many be needed in the days ahead! We continue to urge everyone to practice fire safety. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 86 65 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 61 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 94 65 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 61 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 68 77 69 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 64 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$