FXUS64 KBMX 251051 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 551 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 539 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025 - A period of unsettled weather is likely to develop over the weekend and last through the start of next week. There is a high chance (70 to 90 percent) of at least 1/2 inch of rain, and a medium chance (50 to 70 percent) of at least one inch of rain, between Sunday and Wednesday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025 Dry weather will continue for today. The upper level ridging that has been in place the last several days will slide eastward through the day as a low pressure system approaches from the west. The main noticeable change we'll see for today will be increasing clouds through the afternoon and early evening as the trough moves into the region. The system is expected to move through the Southeastern CONUS Sunday into Monday leading to increased rain chances for all of Central AL Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. There might be a few isolated thunderstorms, but given the lack of instability, the thunderstorms probabilities are low (less than 20%). Rain showers will likely continue through the night on Sunday into Monday morning before the system moves east of our area. Tuesday through Thursday looks to remain fairly active weather-wise with another system quickly moving into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Guidance has struggled with the evolution of this large upper level trough, so timing of highest rain chances in Central AL is still in question, though at least low to medium chances (30-50%) will continue through Thursday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025 VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. An approaching upper system will lead to increase rain chances just beyond this TAF window. With that said, there is a low chance of showers, mainly at TCL, early Sunday morning. Easterly winds around 10 knots can be expected for much of this cycle. Winds will begin to increase at BHM/EET/TCL Sunday morning with gusts up to 20 knots. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... We'll have another dry day on Saturday with MinRHs in the 25-35% range for most of the area. A few isolated locations may drop below 25 briefly in the afternoon. Winds will be slightly higher on Saturday compared to previous days with sustained winds around 10-12 with gusts up to 15mph. MinRHs and winds are expected to remain out of RFW criteria for Saturday, but may still be problematic if fires develop. Increased rain chances move in Sunday through the middle part of next week with widespread rain expected Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 75 51 66 49 / 0 10 50 80 Anniston 75 52 65 51 / 0 10 40 80 Birmingham 76 56 66 54 / 0 20 60 80 Tuscaloosa 80 57 68 56 / 0 30 70 80 Calera 80 54 69 53 / 0 20 60 80 Auburn 75 54 69 54 / 0 0 20 80 Montgomery 80 57 74 56 / 0 10 40 80 Troy 78 57 74 56 / 0 10 30 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...25/Owen AVIATION...95/Castillo