FXUS64 KBMX 242258 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 558 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 558 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025 - Dry weather will continue across Central Alabama through at least Saturday. Drought conditions persist. - A period of unsettled weather is likely to develop over the weekend and last through the start of next week. There is a high chance (70 to 90 percent) of at least 1/2 inch of rain, and a medium chance (50 to 70 percent) of at least one inch of rain, between Sunday and Wednesday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 229 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025 Central Alabama should get at least 24 to 30 more hours of dry weather, before significant changes commence. Models remain in good agreement with an upper level shortwave trough rolling across the Mississippi River and into the midsouth/southeast states on Sunday. Rain chances go up substantially Sunday night through Monday as this trough plows through. Most rain will come in the form of light to moderate showers. However, there does some to be enough instability present in the southern half of the state to perhaps cause a few thunderstorms as well. Models have also started to converge on a highly amplified but progressive pattern through next week. The initial swath of rain that comes through on Sunday/early Monday may now be followed by a couple more (relatively short) periods of showers in the work week that follows, before things fully dry out toward the end of next week. Timing is still quite uncertainty on any of these followup showery periods, so daily POPs are still pretty low (but non- zero). /61/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025 VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Critically dry conditions are expected again this afternoon. Min RHs will drop to 20-25% for several locations across South-Central and East- Central AL. Winds will generally be light (less than 5-10mph), which keeps us out of any red flag warning criteria. Our next shot at rain moves into the region on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 43 75 50 65 / 0 0 20 60 Anniston 45 75 52 65 / 0 0 10 50 Birmingham 51 76 55 65 / 0 0 20 60 Tuscaloosa 51 80 57 67 / 0 0 30 70 Calera 49 80 54 68 / 0 0 20 60 Auburn 51 75 54 69 / 0 0 10 40 Montgomery 52 80 57 72 / 0 0 10 50 Troy 52 78 56 73 / 0 0 10 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.../61/ AVIATION.../44/