FXUS64 KBMX 240551

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025



 - Dry weather will continue across Central Alabama through at

   least Saturday. Drought conditions persist. 



 - A period of unsettled weather is likely to develop over the

   weekend and last through the start of next week. There is a 

   high chance (70 to 90 percent) of at least 1/2 inch of rain, 

   and a medium chance (50 to 70 percent) of at least one inch of 

   rain, between Sunday and Wednesday of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Today through next Thursday)

Issued at 1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025



High pressure continues to be in place across the region today 

through tomorrow leading to more dry weather and seasonable 

temperatures. Rain chances increase during the day on Sunday as an 

upper low moves through the region, providing ample forcing for 

precipitation. The question will be moisture availability with some 

guidance trying to trend slightly drier overall; however, I still 

think most of the area will see measurable rainfall on Sunday. There 

are some lower probabilities for thunderstorms with this system on 

Sunday, but the window for any instability needed for widespread 

thunderstorm activity is small. 



As we go into next week, the overall synoptic trend is to have a 

trough over the Eastern CONUS. Guidance still varies on the depth 

and placement of the trough. This difference will determine when we 

see further rain chances and when we'll eventually have the drier 

airmass build into the region. For now, I've got low to medium (15-

40%) chances for rain Tuesday into Wednesday before the drier air 

moves in for Thursday. 



25/Owen



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025



VFR conditions expected across Central AL for the next 24 hours.

Generally calm winds overnight, increasing slightly to 4-6kts

during the day before becoming light to calm again tomorrow

evening. 



25/Owen



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



Critically dry conditions are expected again Friday. Min RHs will 

drop to 20-25% for several locations across South-Central and East-

Central AL. Winds will generally be light (less than 5-10mph), which 

keeps us out of any red flag warning criteria. Our next shot at rain 

moves into the region on Sunday.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     73  44  76  51 /   0   0   0  10 

Anniston    74  45  74  52 /   0   0   0  10 

Birmingham  75  50  75  55 /   0   0   0  10 

Tuscaloosa  80  51  80  56 /   0   0   0  20 

Calera      79  48  79  54 /   0   0   0  10 

Auburn      78  51  74  53 /   0   0   0   0 

Montgomery  81  51  78  56 /   0   0   0  10 

Troy        80  51  77  55 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...25/Owen

AVIATION...25/Owen