FXUS64 KBMX 201922 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 216 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026 - Flooding: A Flood Watch is in effect for much of Central Alabama through this evening due to a high chance for additional heavy rains falling on already saturated soils. Flash flooding will be possible along and south of the I-22 corridor, stretching eastward to the Birmingham Metro area and the I-20 corridor. - Heat: Heat index readings approaching 100 degrees are forecast beginning Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 216 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026 A wet pattern will persist through early next week. A warm front, currently stretched across the northern region, will drift northward through Sunday, maintaining a moist, southerly flow. Westerly flow aloft will likely drive multiple impulses across the front, triggering several MCS systems in addition to typical summertime thunderstorms. Development will continue this afternoon, particularly along the front and across the southern portions of the area, where the highest flood risk exists due to training storms. We will continue monitoring model trends to determine if extending the current flash flood watch or issuing a new one for Sunday is necessary. Please remain alert for potential flood advisories and warnings. A west to northwest flow pattern establishes itself next week, characterized by elongated ridging over Mexico and the Four Corners, while a series of longwave troughs rotate across the Upper Plains and Great Lakes regions. Consequently, higher than normal rain chances will persist through much of the work week, as another front approaches the area and then stalls once again. Mesoscale details remain uncertain; however, we will monitor for potential MCS activity given the synoptic orientation. Temperatures will increase over the weekend and into early next week. While heat indices are not expected to reach advisory criteria, they will approach the 100-degree mark on Monday and Tuesday. 16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026 As convective development occurs, ceilings are forecast to drop once again with prevailing SHRA which will limit visibility at times as coverage increases. Impacts are already being felt at BHM and TCL with EET up next. Interests should expect frequent amendments and potentially an addition of prevailing TSRA for terminals through this afternoon. TEMPO TSRA was also added in for KAUO and KMGM for later this afternoon, but forecast confidence is a little lower in terms of timing and overall storm coverage. Following TSRA/SHRA ending this evening, VFR conditions can be expected with the potential for lower ceilings returning once again. Winds will remain light and variable outside of thunderstorms. More showers and storms after 15z on Sunday, but more than likely after 17z. Note: Metars from AUO are coming through but observations are missing data. Therefore, AMD NOT SKED has been added for this set. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... High rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet pattern through the work week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 88 73 88 / 20 40 30 70 Anniston 69 87 72 88 / 20 40 20 60 Birmingham 71 87 74 89 / 20 50 30 60 Tuscaloosa 71 86 74 90 / 20 70 30 50 Calera 70 88 73 91 / 20 60 30 50 Auburn 70 86 72 88 / 30 50 30 30 Montgomery 71 86 73 90 / 30 80 30 30 Troy 71 86 73 90 / 30 60 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Clay- Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee- Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...16