FXUS64 KBMX 201110 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 610 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 156 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025 Weather across central Alabama through Thursday will continue to be driven largely by typical summertime mesoscale processes, with a diurnal cycle. Model blends suggest POPs that are right near or a tad above climo normals, and I see no reason to deviate from that. The large upper level ridge that had helped to bring unusually hot/humid conditions to parts of our area the last several days has started its slide to the west. The lower heights are likely to lead to slightly lower highs in the short term as well. /61/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 156 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025 After a continuation of summertime warmth and daily convection the end of the week and over the weekend, the models continue to advertise the approach and likely passage of a cold front early next week. If this verifies (and confidence continues to increase that it will), then we should see a noticeable decrease in humidity levels along with at least a couple day stretch of max temps at least 5-10 degrees lower than we've experienced lately. /61/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025 VFR conditions are currently in place and will prevail through the majority of this TAF cycle. Transitioned to TEMPO groups at ASN/BHM/EET/TCL this afternoon's convection as the latest CAMs show a bit more coverage. Maintained PROB30s at AUO/MGM. Another round of MVFR ceilings are likely Thursday morning across those terminals that receive rain today. NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been added at TCL until further notice due to comms issues. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... Generally light easterly to northeasterly winds are expected, becoming more northerly as we go into the end of the work week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through the next several days. No critical fire weather issues expected through the weekend. For planning purposes, a cold front could bring some much lower dewpoints and afternoon humidity levels into the area early to middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 71 90 70 / 40 20 20 10 Anniston 92 71 90 70 / 40 20 20 10 Birmingham 94 73 90 72 / 40 20 20 10 Tuscaloosa 95 74 92 72 / 40 20 20 10 Calera 93 73 90 72 / 40 20 30 10 Auburn 90 72 91 72 / 40 10 30 20 Montgomery 94 74 93 73 / 30 20 40 20 Troy 92 72 92 72 / 30 20 40 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...95/Castillo