FXUS64 KBMX 200430 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1130 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 ...New DISCUSSION and CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1125 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026 - Well above average temperatures are expected as we head into this weekend and onward. && .DISCUSSION... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1125 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026 We will continue with a warming trend as we head into this weekend. Guidance continues to indicate that the next seven days should be generally rain-free as surface ridging meanders from the Atlantic Seaboard to the SE US Fri and then over the Gulf this weekend. In addition, a large upper ridge is present over the WRN US. A front does approach by Mon along with an upper NW flow disturbance on Tue into Wed across C AL. However, with only meager moisture in place, we will probably only get a few clouds out of it. Latest guidance indicates a better chance that the front will make further progress through C AL than previous runs. This should help lower temperatures some for the first half of next week. Even so, readings will still be well above normal. 08 Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026 Very quiet weather is expected for most of the next seven days, as a surface ridge builds in the Gulf, and an upper-level ridge builds over the west coast. Under the influence of both these ridges, temperatures across the region will begin to skyrocket. By the weekend, afternoon highs will range in the mid to upper-80s, with a few locations in our east potentially pushing 90 degrees come Sunday. By Monday however, these ridges will begin to retrograde, as a trough begins to drop south through the Midwest. This time yesterday, morning guidance didn't have the cold front associated with this trough dropping all that far south. Today however, guidance is bring the cold front much farther south, introducing a larger temperature swing to the forecast. In general, this frontal passage still looks dry, as there is barely any moisture in the air column from NW flow aloft. The trend to watch the next few days will be how far south this next front makes it, as that will dictate how far our temperatures swing. From here, temperatures will begin to climb once more, as the ridge reestablishes itself out west, with very little to speak of regarding rain chances through the remainder of the forecast. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026 VFR TAFs are expected for the 24 hour forecast with surface ridging in place. Winds overnight will be light/variable to near calm. During the day, look for SW winds 4-9kts with mixing. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values for Friday afternoon will likely range from the low-40% north, to the mid to low-20% range south. This will be the trend for most of the next week, as MinRH values remain variable under a strong upper high-pressure to our west, and a surface ridge to our south. Little to no rain is expected the next seven days, and drought conditions will likely expand given the upcoming warm stretch. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1125 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026 Record high temperatures in danger of breaking over the next few days: March 21: KEET: 87/2017 KTCL: 88/2017 March 22: KEET: 81/2011 KANB: 84/1904 KTCL: 86/1995 March 23: KEET: 82/2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 39 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 43 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 47 78 56 83 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 47 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 45 79 53 85 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 46 76 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 43 78 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 43 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08/44/ AVIATION...08