FXUS64 KBMX 191708 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1208 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025 - Medium chances of heat indices reaching 105 degrees through this evening for areas mainly along and west of I-65. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025 A lingering convergent boundary remains stretched across Central AL today, which will help lead to some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon across a good portion of the area. Otherwise, the main impact today will again be the high heat indices through the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures overachieved yesterday in some spots depending on cloud cover during the mid afternoon and any proximity to the thunderstorm activity. That could occur again today with some locations that don't see showers/thunderstorms early enough could see high temperatures reach slightly above the forecast. Overall, high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s across the west with upper 80s to low 90s across the eastern portions of Central AL. 25/Owen && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025 As Hurricane Erin continues to pull away from the East Coast towards the end of the week, we'll see some weak troughing across the area, leading to slightly higher than typical rain/thunderstorm chances across Central AL, especially across the southeastern half of the area. Overall, this should lead to a break from the heat impacts we've seen the past several days. As we look into the first of next week, guidance continues to show a frontal boundary pushing southward into Central AL on Monday and to the coast by Monday evening. Right now, this appears to be largely a dry cold front with guidance showing little rain along the boundary aside from the typical diurnal activity. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025 VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected from generally 18-01z today, but probs are closer to 15-20%, so have left specific mention or prob30s out of the TAFs for now. Will plan to amend if necessary. NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been added at TCL until further notice due to comms issues. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Generally light easterly to northeasterly winds are expected today, becoming more northerly as we go into the second half of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today with better chances Wednesday and Thursday. Min RHs should remain in the 40-60% range through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 93 71 90 / 10 40 10 30 Anniston 72 91 71 90 / 10 30 10 40 Birmingham 74 94 73 90 / 10 40 20 40 Tuscaloosa 75 95 73 92 / 10 40 20 40 Calera 74 94 73 90 / 10 30 20 40 Auburn 73 91 73 91 / 10 30 10 40 Montgomery 74 94 73 93 / 10 20 10 40 Troy 72 92 73 92 / 10 20 10 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale- Jefferson-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-Sumter- Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...25/Owen LONG TERM....25/Owen AVIATION...25/Owen