FXUS64 KBMX 191101

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

601 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 

Updated at 600 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026



 - There is a medium chance for patchy frost this morning across

   portions of East Central Alabama. A frost advisory continues to

   be in effect until 8 AM. 



 - Well above average temperatures are expected as we head into 

   this weekend and onward. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Thursday through next Wednesday)

Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026



We have one more night of below normal temps before our big warm

up. A frost advisory continues for portions of E C AL for tonight

through 13z Thu for a late season frost with only minimal areas 

of high cloudiness and light/variable to calm winds across the 

area. Look for a warming trend after a chilly early start Thu. 

Guidance continues to indicate that the next seven days should be 

generally rain-free as surface ridging meanders from the Atlantic 

Seaboard Thu to the SE US Fri and then over the Gulf this weekend

as well as a large upper ridge over the WRN US. A front does 

approach by Mon along with a weak upper NW flow disturbance on 

Tue, but with only meager moisture in place, we may only get a 

few clouds out of it. The front should help nudge temps down a tad

for Mon night through Tue night, but even so readings will still 

be above normal.



08



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 600 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026



VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours and beyond with

light winds.



32/JDavis



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



MinRH values may rebound slightly for this Thursday afternoon, but

we still have a high chance of seeing readings middle to upper 20

percent range in the southeast counties. MinRH values could 

remain highly variable this week, as the region remains under the 

influence of a strong upper high pressure to our west. No rain is

expected the next seven days, and drought conditions will likely 

expand given the upcoming warm stretch. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     70  39  76  50 /   0   0   0   0 

Anniston    70  44  76  53 /   0   0   0   0 

Birmingham  71  47  77  56 /   0   0   0   0 

Tuscaloosa  73  47  79  55 /   0   0   0   0 

Calera      72  46  79  54 /   0   0   0   0 

Auburn      69  47  76  53 /   0   0   0   0 

Montgomery  71  44  78  52 /   0   0   0   0 

Troy        71  43  77  52 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for the following 

counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay-

Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-

Russell-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...08

AVIATION...32/JDavis