FXUS64 KBMX 190435 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1135 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026 - There is a medium chance for patchy frost night across portions of East Central Alabama. A frost advisory continues to be in effect until 8 AM Thursday. - Well above average temperatures are expected as we head into this weekend and onward. && .DISCUSSION... (Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026 We have one more night of below normal temps before our big warm up. A frost advisory continues for portions of E C AL for tonight through 13z Thu for a late season frost with only minimal areas of high cloudiness and light/variable to calm winds across the area. Look for a warming trend after a chilly early start Thu. Guidance continues to indicate that the next seven days should be generally rain-free as surface ridging meanders from the Atlantic Seaboard Thu to the SE US Fri and then over the Gulf this weekend as well as a large upper ridge over the WRN US. A front does approach by Mon along with a weak upper NW flow disturbance on Tue, but with only meager moisture in place, we may only get a few clouds out of it. The front should help nudge temps down a tad for Mon night through Tue night, but even so readings will still be above normal. 08 Previous discussion: (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026 Temperatures will slowly start to rebound here over the next 48- hours, as a stout upper-level ridge builds in over the west coast. Until then, one more night of well below average temperatures is expected again tonight, with the potential for frost in many of our of eastern counties. Given this potential, we have gone ahead and issued a Frost Advisory for the overnight hours, with temperatures expected to quickly rise as the sun comes up. From here, the first half of this forecast period will remain influenced by that aforementioned ridge over the west coast. Temperatures will slowly climb, peaking in the low to mid-80s by Sunday. However, this ridge should become slightly suppressed by the start of the new workweek, as a weak 500mb trough starts to work through the Plains and Midwest. This trough will drop a cold front just far enough south to affect our temperatures, with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday ranging in the low to upper-70s. Thankfully, based on current guidance, this is where things should settle into next weekend. /44/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026 VFR TAFs are expected for the 24 hour forecast with surface ridging in place. Winds overnight will be light/variable to near calm. During the day, look for SW winds 4-9kts with mixing. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values may rebound slightly for this Thursday afternoon, but we still have a high chance of seeing readings middle to upper 20 percent range in the southeast counties. MinRH values could remain highly variable this week, as the region remains under the influence of a strong upper high pressure to our west. No rain is expected the next seven days, and drought conditions will likely expand given the upcoming warm stretch. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 32 70 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 36 70 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 40 71 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 39 73 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 38 72 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 38 69 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 36 71 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 36 71 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Thursday for thefollowing counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay- Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph- Russell-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa. && $$ DISCUSSION...08/44/ AVIATION...08