FXUS64 KBMX 071123 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 623 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 AM CDT MON APR 7 2025 - Heavy rainfall is expected and may lead to localized flooding through the southeast. - Frost and freeze conditions expected for the northern half of Central Alabama Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM CDT MON APR 7 2025 The front has finally moved into the southeastern section. Look for the rain and storms to generally be limited to the southeast today, so we have adjusted the Flash Flood Watch areas ahead of the front. By tonight, we should see the front to our east with drier and cooler air working to the area. In fact we could see some low 40s to upper 30s overnight, with the coldest in the north. Looks like winds will remain up a tad so only isolated protected areas in the northeast could see any frost, therefore not enough to warrant an advisory at this time. More sun will be available on Tuesday, but a strong northerly wind should keep the area in the 60s, with some upper 50s in the far north. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 220 AM CDT MON APR 7 2025 High pressure builds Tuesday night and will allow winds to go fairly calm overnight. This should allow for some good radiational cooling resulting in a fairly large area across the north to see frost with even a few counties approach or even fall under the freezing mark. Any watches/advisories will be evaluated this morning. Things will briefly warm up into Thursday, before another reinforcing trough and associated cold front moves through Thursday night into Friday morning, We will see an increase in rain chances but the severe potential remains unlikely right now. This cold will will also bring with it another reinforcing shot of cooler air, as highs Friday and Saturday drop back into the mid and upper 60s. 16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT MON APR 7 2025 MVFR and IFR conditions are being observed with heavy rain in the southeast. Conditions will be slow to improve through the day with areas only reaching VFR by 22 to 00z. After 00z VFR conditions will be in place. We could see some patchy fog development due to the saturated ground, but not confident enough to include at this time with winds remaining at 3 to 5 kts. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances will remain in the forecast through the afternoon, before cool and dry air finally works back into the region. By Tuesday, MinRH values will drop back into the low-30% range, where they will remain through Thursday. Elsewhere, look for Mixing Heights to rebound as well, back to nearly 5.0kft by Tuesday as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 38 61 31 / 30 0 0 0 Anniston 59 38 62 34 / 40 0 0 0 Birmingham 57 41 62 36 / 30 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 60 41 65 36 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 59 41 63 36 / 40 0 0 0 Auburn 62 43 65 39 / 100 0 0 0 Montgomery 61 42 68 38 / 70 0 0 0 Troy 61 43 68 38 / 100 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Elmore-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike- Randolph-Russell-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16