FXUS64 KBMX 070535 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1235 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1228 AM CDT MON APR 7 2025 - Heavy rainfall is expected and may lead to localized flooding as this storm system slows its movement as it through the southeast. - Frost and freeze conditions expected for the northern half of the area Tuesday morning and all of Central Alabama Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 741 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2025 Rain and thunderstorms are ongoing across central and southeastern parts of the area. Although the severe threat is effectively over, a couple storms could still briefly become severe over the next few hours. Otherwise, flooding continues to be a concern, especially along the I-85 corridor. 2-4" of additional rainfall is expected over southeastern Central Alabama, which will exacerbate any ongoing flooding issues. Additionally, we continue to see light to moderate showers working through areas around Birmingham ahead of the cold front, which is pushing into the northwestern counties this evening. Tomorrow will be much cooler behind the front, with highs in the upper 50s to 60s across the area. 12 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Monday) Issued at 107 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2025 The severe weather threat will continue to linger through this evening, with damaging winds and a tornado or two remaining the convective threats. The largest threat now appears to be flooding and flash flooding, as some locations have already reported 5+ inches of rain. The Flood Watch will remain in effect through Monday, as this steady rainfall still appears to be quite slow exiting the region. An additional 4-5 inches of rainfall appears possible, especially with the heavier convective banding in our SE zones. The main front will finally move through the region by tomorrow, giving the rest of the lingering rain the final push it needs. From there, look for cool and quiet conditions to start the long- term. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 107 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2025 Strong cold air advection will quickly work in behind the cold front, allowing for lows Monday night to drop into the upper-30s and low-40s. By Tuesday night, some of our higher elevation locations could be below freezing, with pockets of frost possible into Wednesday morning. Highs during this timeframe still look to be quite nice, with highs generally ranging in the upper-50s to upper-60s by Wednesday. Things will briefly warm up into Thursday, before another reinforcing trough begins drop south through the Midwest. This trough and cold front should increase rain chances into Thursday night, but thankfully severe weather does not look likely right now. This cold will will also bring with it another reinforcing shot of cooler air, as highs Friday and Saturday drop back into the mid and upper-60s. /44/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT MON APR 7 2025 MVFR and IFR conditions are being observed with heavy rain in the southeast. Conditions will be slow to improve through the day with areas only reaching VFR by 22 to 00z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances will remain in the forecast through Monday, before cool and dry air finally works back into the region. By Tuesday, MinRH values will drop back into the mid-30% range, where they will remain through Thursday. Elsewhere, look for Mixing Heights to rebound as well, back to nearly 5.0kft by Tuesday as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 39 61 32 / 30 0 0 0 Anniston 59 39 62 35 / 40 0 0 0 Birmingham 57 42 62 37 / 30 0 0 0Tuscaloosa 60 41 65 38 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 59 42 63 38 / 40 0 0 0 Auburn 62 44 65 40 / 100 0 0 0 Montgomery 61 42 68 39 / 70 0 0 0 Troy 61 43 68 39 / 100 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Hale-Jefferson- Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby- St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...16