FXUS64 KBMX 031157 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 557 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 553 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026 - Rain will overspread Central Alabama through the course of this afternoon and tonight. - There is a medium to high chance for seasonably warm temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1205 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026 Tue: A broad mid- to upper-level impulse, and approaching surface front, will generate a large area of showers upstream of Central Alabama this morning. This activity will then overspread our area through the course of this afternoon and tonight. No thunderstorms are expected per saturated/stable forecast soundings. Wed-Thu: A more pronounced, yet drier, upper-level trough will swing across the region Wednesday into Thursday. This will push a front across the area Wednesday morning, promoting somewhat breezy northwest winds through the day (sustained near 10 mph, gusts around 20 mph) and nudging away any lingering showers near/southeast of the 85 corridor. A two-day shot of colder air will also be had. Fri-Mon: Fair weather is expected heading into and over the weekend, featuring chilly nights and mild afternoons. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026 All sites are VFR ATTM. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR this afternoon and evening as -RA comes into the area from the NW ahead of a front. Cigs will further deteriorate to IFR this evening as the precip becomes more widespread. This will continue through the end of the forecast. Winds will be SW 5-10kts today and tonight ahead of the front. No TS is anticipated with very limited/low instability. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain will overspread Central Alabama through the course of this afternoon and tonight, persisting as late as ~mid morning Wednesday near/southeast of the 85 corridor. Amounts should average near one-half inch, locally higher in downpours. A drying northwest wind near 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph is forecast for Wednesday afternoon, though temperature/dew point spreads are not expected to be that wide which will keep MinRHs well above critical thresholds. Lower dew points move in for Thursday, pushing MinRHs into the 30s for a large chunk of Central Alabama during the afternoon alongside northwest winds from 5-10 mph. Fair weather is currently forecast for Friday and the weekend with MinRHs above critical thresholds, though slipping into the 30s for parts of Central Alabama, and west/northwest winds near 5-10 mph during the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 59 41 48 22 / 90 100 20 0 Anniston 60 41 51 23 / 50 100 30 0 Birmingham 60 41 48 25 / 90 100 10 0 Tuscaloosa 60 38 48 24 / 90 100 10 0 Calera 62 40 51 23 / 60 100 20 0 Auburn 60 48 55 27 / 10 90 70 0 Montgomery 65 49 56 28 / 10 90 50 0 Troy 65 49 58 29 / 0 90 70 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...08