FXUS64 KAMA 251142 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 642 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will be likely through the day on Saturday across the eastern combined Panhandles - Frost and freeze conditions will be possible across portions of the area from Tuesday night through Thursday night && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Widespread low clouds and reduced visibility, with locally dense fog possible, is expected to start Saturday morning, but conditions should improve by the afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough will be present over the Panhandles. A shortwave trough, coming from southwest Texas, will swing into the parent trough causing a re-intensification of the system. The trough will retreat to the north-northwest through Saturday, causing PVA to once again be present in the eastern Panhandles. Between the favorable forcing and moisture wrapping around the system, showers with a couple isolated thunderstorms will be favored through much of the day. If enough heating can be realized among the cold airmass aloft, some small hail cannot be ruled out despite weak wind shear. However, this will heavily depend upon the clouds clearing out which seems rather unlikely at this time. Activity will taper off in the evening as the system pulls off to the east. Will have to watch for fog potential once again Saturday night/Sunday morning, mostly across the western and central Panhandles. An upper-level ridge will build over the Panhandles on Sunday. Clouds will clear through the day which will help temperatures warm to varying degrees; the southwestern Panhandles will warm into the mid/upper-70s while the northeastern Panhandles will warm slightly into the mid-60s. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 An upper-level trough will push into the Northern Plains on Monday, but temperatures will continue to warm across the area; upper-60s are expected in the northeast while it's as warm as around 80 degrees in the southwest. A cold front is expected move in later in the day, and lows will drop into the mid-30s in the north with mid- 40s in the south. A dry, relatively chilly airmass is expected to settle in from Tuesday through Thursday night as the upper-level trough dips down into the Southern US. Will have to be on the lookout for frost conditions across much of the area for Tuesday night through Thursday night. In fact, the latest NBM shows a 30-55% chance for low temperatures to drop below 30 degrees Wednesday night across the western and northern combined Panhandles. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 IFR/LIFR conditions to start for the TAF sites as we have showers and storms still lingering this morning. Overall cigs and vis should gradually improve to VFR by 18-21z. Winds generally will be starting off out of the north, and becoming more light at variable later in the TAF period. IFR/LIFR conditions look to return tonight after 03z as low level moisture could lead to fog or low cigs. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...89